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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Daniel W. Koehler who wrote (2706)	9/6/1998 3:17:00 PM
From: Mama Bear	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12623

"Birck stated that there is a force majure clause in the new agreement that allows the deal to be aborted if a sea change occurs for either side." I do believe that Birck believe it is in the best long term interest of the shareholders to go through with this deal. Hasn't Birck's judgement proved to be good in the past? This is my impression, but I have not actively followed TLAB before the takeover was announced. There is also the consideration of the risk arb community being burned on this deal. Even though my impression is that they did it to themselves by panicking on the T announcement and dumping (assuming they don't have any information we don't), they lost a lot of money, and are understandably shy about reentering the deal. From the widening arb spread, I'd even venture to guess that they may be arbing the deal falling through (long TLAB, short CIEN). We must also take the state of the market into consideration. Just because the merger is of particular interest to the respective shareholders of CIEN and TLAB, does not mean that it is the only thing driving the prices of the companies. Fron JJ Cramer's Wrong! column of 9/4/98 titled "Get off the Phone": "Perhaps the most visible outgrowth of this era is that stocks like Lucent (LU:NYSE) and Tellabs (TLAB:Nasdaq) have become dramatically overowned. I did some work on Tellabs today trying to make a case for it, and all that I came back with was, 'This one-time highflyer is now for sale everywhere.'" archive.thestreet.com A subscription is required to access the link. I must say that I'm glad my entry into CIEN was after the T announcement, and is softened by profits I took that day. CIEN could actually go to 0 and I'd still have a profit in the name. But I must say I've grown attached to those profits, and am finding the widening arb spread most worrisome. Barb