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To: Fuller who wrote (14046)9/5/1998 2:38:00 AM
From: AlanH  Respond to of 120523
 
Fuller, re:Rates

Like you, I've been lurking the MG thread for some time. Good to hear from you.

If we can believe Rubin (whose comments seem diametrical to AG's!!), US Treasury feels that a strong dollar is good -- at least relative to Yen. This would support the idea that interest rates will not change immediately, despite an inverted yield curve. The cover story seems to be that Japan can save itself via "public" funds, and the US will contribute to global recovery visa-vis IMF (and a proposed additional US$18B).

My gut says that rates [correction: rate, since the Fed needs to support US banks] will change in November. It's plausible that a domestic 'crisis' would force the Fed's hand before November.

The interesting thing to me is not the 'when' on rates, rather the apparent contrast in philosophies. While I anticipate that this will be glossed by the media, the undercurrent suggests that there's no clear address to a problem that's been highlighted as "urgent."

IMO, it ain't pretty.

Regards,
Alan



To: Fuller who wrote (14046)9/5/1998 7:38:00 AM
From: Wallace Rivers  Respond to of 120523
 
For all who are interested, there is a thread devoted to discussion of the direction of the movement in Fed Funds, and interest rates in general:
Alan Greenspan and the FOMC - Time to ease?
exchange2000.com
It appears, according to the text of his most recent statements, Mr. G may be preparing indeed to loosen the monetary reins; it appears he is getting substantial pressure from abroad to do this, as well. FOMC meeting Sept. 29 could be most interesting.


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