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To: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9 who wrote (51583)	9/5/1998 12:28:00 AM
From: The Perfect Hedge	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

Have you seen "Breaking the Waves"? Great movie...my fav of last year... B

To: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9 who wrote (51583)	9/5/1998 12:41:00 AM
From: j g cordes	Respond to of 58727

In keeping with the energy theme this is a possible scenario.. though I would take exception to a number of items it still looks in line with the current pop... its also an ad for their services, but look through that. La Nina has been getting a lot of attention, I crossed it with Lewis and Clarke expedition which experienced one and North America did have snow.. Global Issues Increased Global Energy Demand Ahead by Tom Logie and Ken Francella, Global Investment Research, Inc. In the last issue of Magnum Hedge Fund Reporter, we forecast that the first quarter backup in Treasury yields would be followed by "a strong summer rally in bonds and interest-sensitive equities." Indeed, as of this writing in early July, Treasury yields have fallen 50 basis points to a new weekly and monthly low, while the S&P 500 and many European equity indices have rebounded to set new record highs. What's the outlook for the second half? We believe that by the end of the third quarter the global economy will reach an historic crossroads. It would appear that an increasing number of analysts and investors expect a further slide toward a pervasive, deflationary global slowdown. Yield curves in major western bond markets are flattening or inverting as investors rotate toward the perceived safety of high quality bonds. Yet, as we highlighted in our last update, such one-sided sentiment overlooks the real risk of "an unexpected, temporary drift into stagflation late this year into 1999." What if the world is poised for a reversal toward energy inflation? If the NYMEX price of crude oil rises toward $20 early next year as we expect, the result will be a 40 percent year-on-year increase in energy prices. Such energy inflation, combined with a similar sharp year-on-year rebound in agricultural commodity prices, may add to seasonal bond market selling pressures during the first quarter of 1999. But hasn't Asia's financial crisis and recession been the primary cause of weak energy demand over the past year? Although widely embraced, this key assumption is simply not true. A review of energy consumption by region indicates that mild El Nino weather conditions over the past 12 months were a far greater drag on global oil demand than the nascent economic contraction now deepening in the Pacific Rim. Yet, scientists monitoring conditions in the South Pacific confirm that the two-year El Nino warming ended in early May and has begun a rapid reversal toward its twin sister, a two-year cooling known as La Nina. Record hot and dry conditions in South Asia, Southern Europe, and the Southern U.S. are typical of the transition from El Nino toward La Nina. Expect Demand to Soar Looking forward over the next 9-12 months, we expect global energy demand to soar, even if the overall global economy softens. Meanwhile, we expect that oil production cutbacks will slowly bring supply and demand back into balance before the end of the year. Therefore, while we were strongly bearish on oil and oil patch equities from last fall through the first half of 1998, we believe the mid-year washout in energy prices has created an historic opportunity to overweight this key sector. In short, while cautious capital continues to rotate toward bonds, we strongly recommend that investors begin shortening bond portfolio duration over the next 3-4 months, and significantly increase exposure to energy. Hedge fund investors should also consider taking long positions in agricultural commodities--the El Nino-created conditions for bountiful harvests. As we have forecast since last fall, the resulting surge in supply, combined with destocking in Asia, triggered a collapse in grain prices. Historically, the shift toward La Nina cooling shortens and disrupts the growing seasons for soybeans, wheat, corn, and other crops. Such a largely unexpected contraction of supply, combined with restocking of depleted Asian food stocks, could trigger a strong rebound for agricultural commodity prices from September into the first half of 1999. By early November when you receive your next issue of Magnum Hedge Fund Reporter, Asia-driven earnings anxiety may once again be driving capital away from equities toward the perceived safety of bonds. At that key crossroads, will the stage be set for a reversal of bearish sentiment on energy? On agricultural commodities? On Japan and the yen? These are among the questions we will address next issue.

To: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9 who wrote (51583)	9/5/1998 12:43:00 AM
From: Gersh Avery	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

From Henry on the currencies thread #reply-5673307 Don't know what he is expecting, but it doesn't sound good. Steve, over on the IT thread pointed out something to me .. Borrow yen from a Japanese bank at say 1.75%. Convert the yen to dollars. Invest the proceeds into the US stock market .. OK .. works as long as the yen is dropping and the US stock market is going up. But when things reverse .. Figured out that dead cat bounces combined with perma-bull trading concepts are probably responsible for inverted bond yield curves. Short term traders dump stocks when market is falling and put the proceeds into short term bonds. The short term bonds then get sold off when the next dip in stocks is perceived to "buy the dip." In a bear market, each round the short term traders have less and less to put back into short term bonds. Also figured out that dead cat bounces are almost required. Shorts have borrowed stock to short .. the owners of the stock figure out, to late, to sell. When they sell the short has to cover .. bounce .. until more longs can be found to borrow from. OT ******* Got a new toy to play with .. Speech Recognition software .. If you start seeing long posts from me you'll know what happened <g> Gersh

To: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9 who wrote (51583)	9/5/1998 9:16:00 AM
From: HairBall	Respond to of 58727

Lisa: the last two days action in the last thirty minutes has been interesting.....and makes me wonder if someone is at work... I believe more than just the last 30 minutes. And, several stocks I follow behaved as if they understood this. (Pardon the human like reference.) All had been fairly dependable to "bunny hop" the DOW and or NASDAQ moves. However, they stood firm on plunges (someone was supporting the stocks) and popped to the up side with the DOW at the close. Thus, causing many shorts covering at the close, to get it in the shorts! BWDIK Regards, LG

To: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9 who wrote (51583)	9/5/1998 9:21:00 PM
From: MonsieurGonzo	Respond to of 58727

Hi Lisa; RE:" Blanc, Bleu et Rouge " BTW, I think of Don as a "WaveMeister" not because he is using, whatchacallit, oh! e-wave, but because his sentiment readings tend to be expressed as waves up and waves down. Although timing and extent are difficult (for everyone) to pin-point (sentiment gets compressed and expanded from multiple days to intra-day, etc) Donald's waves do a terrific job of nailing what Nemer calls, "trade 'em in the direction they want to go, pardner! " ie., day-trading in the direction of Donald's wave-expressed sentiment has a better chance of succeeding (as Tom noted awhile back). Anyhoo, mon cher for men, ma cherie for women, typical; ask a native speaker for elaboration. The hand gestures were sign language, but I don't know what they meant, either. I'm still trying to get over the film, "pi" - but tonight, it's Paul Muni doing Emile Zola on the VCR (^_^) j'accuse ! -Steve