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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joey Two-Cents who wrote (13493)	9/5/1998 10:08:00 AM
From: Yamakita	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

Long before a scenario of the proportions you describe is reached, Mr. Greenspan will have ratcheted his little spigot of interest rates downward, and thus prevent a massive 29-style crash of the style your posts constantly allude to. When, not if, he does that (under the scenario of a big crash, that is), the price of gold will fall dramatically. Your calls of 10,000 percent profit to be had by buying highly speculative and dubious gold calls way out of the money is spurious and Dave Stewart-like. I mean, I realize this is only your opinion and that you are not advocating anyone to make those moves, but jesus, get a grip. Y2K as an issue has been far, far overblown. Many of us here have made astounding profits by shorting the "pure play" Y2K companies. Most will end up bankrupt. All have taken precipitous falls. Banks more or less have the problem figured out by now, or at least have figured out how to avoid relevant data loss and how to avoid the big doomsday scenarios the scam Y2K companies love to trumpet. Wall Street's test run a few months ago was pulled off with almost no hitches. No vitriol intended, but you'll forgive me for seeing the phrase, "10,000%" as a red flag.

To: Joey Two-Cents who wrote (13493)	9/5/1998 10:35:00 AM
From: stsimon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

Any rise in the price of gold will be a dead cat bounce. We are on the cusp of a potential downward spiral in world economies. The recent rallies in gold and oil are likely, IMHO, to be short. Once the speculative mania in the Internet stocks breaks there will be no place to hide, except treasuries. I've average 58% a year for the last ten years, having made a small fortune in Intel warrants alone, but that game is over. The long suffering bears are going to have their day in the sun. Greenspan may trigger a brief rally with a rate cut, but I suspect it will be too little, too late. Nevertheless, one should give Greenspan and Rubin some respect for keeping this expansion going for so long.