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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Worswick who wrote (6177)	9/6/1998 12:55:00 AM
From: Michael Sphar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Worswick, Your post, refreshingly creative and candid to my thinking, will probably be viewed by some in a negative manner. I think there is an apologist sentiment shared by some here for what I view as the second largest empire - China. Nevertheless I consider your post provocative and worthy of reasoned discussion. Early in this thread's brief history when I interjected the subject of economic fallout from an eventual resolution of the next phase of the rift between Taiwan and the PRC, I was soundly chastised by someone for having exposed this concept of politics into a place where economics only should prevail. Silly me, I never could see how those two subjects could be so unentwined, must be an education deficit. I would like to disagree with your analysis. For political reasons, I doubt very seriously that Siberia would ever become an extension to Alaska or the US. The drive to expand America is over. I see no thrust from within, and I see no significant strategic gain. Colonization has never been a successful American trait. Siberia is a vast landmass with tremendous resources true, but in this time of tremendous structural deflation what good are falling natural asset values to a first tier country that is moving fast-forward in the post-industrial age and already has copious resources to administer ? I think it would be more likely for Siberia to fall to control and administration of the PRC except for the presence of Japan. Japan is a resource scarce country that could actually benefit mightily from the abundance of resources just across the Sea of Japan. Japan, as an island nation has in the past expressed desire to extend its influence over other resource rich areas, and will probably have the motivation to do so again some day. As for the PRC, well I just don't think that empire will seek that much territorial growth either. Their focus will continue to be towards the complicated issues surrounding the ASEAN nations where large indigenous populations of Chinese already exist, Taiwan, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, etc. Also there is the rather significant fact that Siberia is a wonderfully inhospitable place to humans for the most part, hence the USSR's use of some of its less-than-willing-proletariat to extract some of the resources. It seems to me a fallout of the Japanese economic debacle and the Russian failed attempt at capitalization will yield a mutually beneficial joint effort to administer this huge ungainly resource to their separate benefits. I see this especially in light of the growing power of an emerging China attempting to coopt the leadership role that was formerly the acknowledged possession of the once economically powerful Japan.