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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (23826)	9/5/1998 1:07:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Eugene/all, SEMI-compiled 3-month average orders vs AMAT price... geocities.com This graph had been posted in July. I just rotated it to make it easier to read. The source was an infrequent poster. Discussion: AMAT follows orders in general, although irrationally exuberant AMAT spikes have violated the relationship. The graph ends in April '98. So, until orders rise, I expect no sustainable rise in AMAT price. You may wish to look at the more recent data as well, albeit without AMAT price (as yet).... geocities.com Gottfried

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (23826)	9/5/1998 2:24:00 PM
From: Big Bucks	Respond to of 70976

Gene, According to this chart AMAT is still 66% higher than it was in Oct of '96 and IMHO the fundamentals are much worse. techstocks.com I do agree that there should be more downside to come. The stock and markets are following my projections posted earlier this summer but are about 4-6 weeks ahead of my "schedule". When the market decides to completely exit AMAT we should see the mid/high teens IMHO. I think that there may be some support from traders who are making lots of money on the volatility. It is in their best interest to support the stock and insure the day to day price gyrations while they take the $1/2 -$1 "cream" off the top. Once a couple of big institutions decide to get out completely the drop should be rapid. Brian, have you turned bearish yet?? Just my opinion, waiting patiently! 8^) BB