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To: epicure who wrote (51608)	9/5/1998 5:35:00 PM
From: HairBall	Respond to of 58727

X: I use to belong to the Foundation for the Study of Cycles. They use to be located in California. When they moved to Pennsylvania, they had a lot of problems getting their publications out on a timely basis. The predictions were coming out after the actual market numbers were known. I did not renew my membership. However, many of their forecasts have been accurate. IE: Predicting years in advance the interest rate decline into the new millennium. They most likely have their act back together regarding timely monthly publications. I primarily joined (subscribed) back in the eighties to learn about cycles. They also did a lot of projections regarding the markets, interest rates, currencies, real estate, gold/silver, weather, commodity prices, earthquakes and frog mating cycles! Yes, the whole ball of wax! The Foundation for the Study of Cycles wanda.pond.com Good luck. Regards, LG

To: epicure who wrote (51608)	9/5/1998 5:38:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

X, >>>>>>>>>>>> I wonder if each stage can be mathematically modeled and compared- and if there is some cohesive pattern. Has anyone been doing this sort of thing? I am thinking of something along the lines of a ratiometric comparison of each stage in the last centuries major drops <<<<<<<<<<<< Very interesting idea, have to put some thought to it. I believe the usage of straight ratios would be too simplistic. Maybe taking the an exponential function of the ratios could be more appropiate to consider the dynamics and variable. Such study would require alot of research and data. As a quick thought, one would start with all declines of greater than 10% and statistically search for similarities/patterns. X - this is alot of research, but its a very valid idea. Here are some of things I would search for: 1) number of support lines broken, amount of break, and time required 2) number of resistance lines holding,amount of time 3) number of short-term cycles - probably require 30 or 60 min charts There would be plenty of other things I would search for. For example, a 20% or greater decline probably would have different characteristics than a decline of 15%, besides just price. Boy, I now wish I had the resources to do that research. I discovered that the key to properly analyze the market is to not be stuck with absolute numbers but an approach of rate of change. Seeya.