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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (26609)	9/5/1998 4:53:00 PM
From: Joseph G.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill, you used to look for GE for guidance ... just a hint -g-

To: William H Huebl who wrote (26609)	9/5/1998 6:00:00 PM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill: Thanks for the prediction. I am not getting a clear picture for Tuesday. I will do more analysis, but may just have to hide and watch Tuesday morning. For All: I posted the following Link on the TSO thread. I use to be a member of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, back in the eighties. The foundation use to be located in California. They moved the foundation to Pennsylvania in the late eighties. They were so late with the monthly publications, I became PO'd and did renew my membership. They do cycle studies on: Stocks, Bonds, Gold, Silver, Real Estate, Interest Rates, Currencies, Oil, Earthquakes, Commodities, Ewave, Weather....you name it. Might be worth a look! The Foundation for the Study of Cycles wanda.pond.com BWDIK Regards, LG

To: William H Huebl who wrote (26609)	9/5/1998 6:33:00 PM
From: BubbaFred	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill, One of your post says bullish interpretation of Greenspan's speech. Another says it is time to bail out on the next up move. I take that from purely technical basis, one should expect a rebound, or "bear trap". By the way, my data for Indu and SPX only went back to 1994. If you have Metastock form data prior to 1994, I would appreciate getting them. Thanks in advance. BWDIK and here are my humble thoughts anyway. I find Greenspan's speech on the bearish side of neutral: "It is just not credible that the United States can remain an oasis of prosperity unaffected by a world that is experiencing greatly increased stress,..''. Reuter's comments: "... the chairman of the U.S. central bank warned that global financial turmoil and Wall Street's volatility may hurt the U.S. economy and suggested he was as inclined to cut interest rates as to raise them. In his first comment on recent tumbling stock prices, the world's most powerful central banker said the Fed now saw a balance of risks facing the U.S. economy between deflationary pressures from international crises and domestic inflation." Greenspan also pointed out the following: "The second consideration with respect to how high asset values can rise is: How far can risk and equity premiums fall? A key factor is that price inflation has receded to quite low levels. The rising level of confidence in recent years concerning future outcomes has doubtless been related to the fall in the rate of inflation that has, of course, also been a critical factor in the fall in interest rates and, importantly, the fall in equity premiums as well. Presumably, the onset of deflation, should it occur, would increase uncertainty as much as a reemergence of inflation concerns. Thus, arguably, at near price stability, perceived risk from business-cycle developments would be at its lowest, and one must presume that would be the case for equity premiums as well. In any event, there is a limit on how far investors can rationally favorably discount the future and therefore how low equity premiums can go. Current claims on a source of income available 20 or 30 years in the future still have current value. But should claims on the hereafter?" I don't read any immediate urgency to lower the rates and therefore I doubt the Feds will do so in next meeting. Perhaps in November, or more likely in December, when US economy will start to show signs of slowdown. If rates are lowered too soon, it can worsen the impact to US economy, many months down the road. Worry now about the deflation, and worry later about inflation. Presently, the Feds has the utmost control on the future direction of the economy. Now is the time to control the extent of deflation in order to control upcoming future inflation. That's what US and Europe have learned to do, and which Asia and Latam has yet to learn. Other notes: There will be no concerted efforts to lower rate from Europe. Bundesbank will not lower rates: biz.yahoo.com biz.yahoo.com biz.yahoo.com Troubled economies want lower US rates. Latin America (Latam) wants lower US rates: biz.yahoo.com biz.yahoo.com Many times in the past, Greenspan has warned of the excessive valuation (i.e. expectations) in the market. IMO, many individual stocks are still at ridiculously high levels of expectation and are looking at projected earnings 20 years down the road. Therefore, the market has to go more to the downside.