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Technology Stocks : MRV Communications (MRVC) opinions? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cube who wrote (10693)	9/5/1998 6:13:00 PM
From: Andy H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42804

There are many possible reasons for the high volume selloff, probably a combination of many-we will never know: 1. Inside info leaking-some legal,some perhaps not. a. Many people outside the company have access to info that could lead one to conclude that MRVC was going to have a bad quarter-component suppliers and others who market MRVC products, to name a few, and anyone doing diligence through those people. b. People inside the co.,perhaps not mgt, who knew things weren't going according to plan can provide a little leakage. c. Mgt talking to analysts without directly conceding points can convey a change in outlook in a subtle fashion. If you have spoken to IR people, including CFO's, very often, you have probably noticed these changes from time to time even though the conclusions are almost the same as the last time you spoke, the tone or lack of detail has changed. d. Mgt giving analysts a direct heads-up. This is not legal. In theory, all material information must be disclosed at once at large. As you suspect, this is not always the case. However, analysts who speak with companies regularly can figure when things have changed without being told directly as mentioned in c. above. It is much harder for us to do that, since our access is not that frequent. 2. Technical trading. a. I have been known to sell on high volume days of out fear that news is coming out after the close, bad rumors, etc. I'm sure I'm not the only one. b. The price that day was breaking down to new lows, and getting into earnings warning season, the selling snowballs. I suspect all of the above reasons caused some of the selling that day. Sometimes the rumors don't pan out and the stocks rebound. Just look at Costco on Wednesday and Thursday. Huge down volume on day one from rumors of SEC accounting issues; day two huge up volume when rumors completely denied. BTW, Costco shows how its done when rumors are false. They not only denied the rumor, but showed the effect on earnings if the rumor were true. Insiders could not bail, directly and indirectly, just before the news. It would be a slam dunk winner in litigation. As far as trusts, etc., all forms of beneficial ownership must be disclosed. Any fun and games on hiding ownership and trading would be criminal.

To: Cube who wrote (10693)	9/5/1998 7:43:00 PM
From: CF Rebel	Respond to of 42804

Cube, My take on trading on 8/27: a typical MRVC day. Most of the networking stocks I watch were down approximately 10% that day. Volumes were higher than normal and the overall market had a bad day. Looking closer, on the same day XYLN acted the same as MRVC. MRVC was down 14.8% with XYLN down 15.0%. Volumes on both stocks were a little more than 2X average. XYLN this summer acted much as MRVC - in the dog house. Maybe XYLN is a good short candidate here. With Europe apparently slowing down, maybe disappointing sales to Alcatel will hit XYLN too. CF Rebel