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To: donald sew who wrote (51617)	9/5/1998 6:05:00 PM
From: Tim Luke	Respond to of 58727

i was pointed to this thread so i guess i will book it.

To: donald sew who wrote (51617)	9/5/1998 10:49:00 PM
From: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 58727

candles csta.org <<<<<< I could just imagine what it would be like talking to you in person - something like the BIONIC MOUTH. gggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggg>>>>>>>>>>>> Mon Cher (thanks Steve)....now you have chatted with me on ICQ and you can see my typing speed with all the misspelled words....which is at a decent rate of speed..i talk about 10 times faster than that..well not really..but pretty close...... you should hook up Vox Phone and then you can talk to me and find out...like the way I do with Fred...and you should hear me after I have had ONE beer....providing I can find my microphone so my dear darling thin non geek.....have you considered a stock to play that would suit the purpose of the downdraft...yet not have as much jacked up premium as the OEX.... I keep thinking MER is a good candidate...or perhaps one of the banks...I am jumping on that one next time it jumps up around 64 (IF WE GET A RALLY) and providing the market still looks like it is going to tank...missed it Friday even though i was looking at it... FROZEN.....with the apppropriate midi on my profile... I know you play the indices....BUT in this time and space..the premium is out of this world and A Kiri has seen first hand how you can get screwed right now.. doesnt hurt to have an alternative ps...you should always read my posts...you never know what i am saying about you behind your back ;-)))))) and Steve...just signed up for that paul muni movie...so dont tell me about it...btw, I took 4 hours of French in College..but dont remember much of it anymore...about enough to say ..I dont speak French ...I dont understand....do you speak English....when I was in France.... Dennis...i thought you would like that joke...and well...don should get a kick out of it too....he LOVES the word..cockroaches....so a good lawyer joke or two should suit him fine... -------------------- To: +James Strauss (20023 ) From: +James Strauss Saturday, Sep 5 1998 10:53PM ET Reply # of 20027 Interesting Reading... Jim Fiend Commentary ================ Defining a Bear Market: Part II There are three stages of sentiment during a bear market: denial, hope, and despair. Denial: In this stage, the investment glass is perceived to be half full by the Bulls. Sure some liquid has escaped, but it is still half full! This was the stage that we were in a few weeks ago before the Dow really began to get hammered. Bullish analysts see the declines as "healthy" and an excellent "buying opportunity" for investors who are not already fully invested. Despite the stock market's extreme overvaluation and signs that it is running into difficulty, the Bulls still see "Blue Skies" and further gains in the near future. The media describes the stock market decline as profit taking or a "breather." There isn't much concern about further declines so there isn't much focus on stressing the need for investors to stay in the market. We are almost certainly past this stage now that the most major averages have dropped 20% or more. Hope: In this stage, the investment glass begins to look more than half empty but the Bulls still insist that it is at least a quarter full. It is generally acknowledged that stock prices have fallen more than they would have believed possible but their basic Pollyanna view has not been changed. Stocks are now perceived to be undervalued and the possibility that they were overvalued before is not entertained at all. A bear market is not generally acknowledged and bullish analysts continue to refer to the prices declines as severe but still corrective. The term "healthy" is heard much less frequently. As the stock market gyrates up and down, each short term low is declared to be a major bottom. The Bulls still have enthusiasm and eagerness for stocks because it is still inconceivable that they won't soon spring back to life. Hope springs eternal early in a bear market! James Glassman's recent comments are very indicative of the sentiment in this stage: But it is almost always a mistake to sell in a panic. In fact, it is almost always a mistake to sell, period. . . . The worst bear market since the Great Depression occurred between December 1972, and September 1974, when the S&P lost 43 percent. But by June 1976, the market was back to its pre-bear levels. That's hardly a sharp bounce-back, but for anyone under age 50 and planning to retire at age 65, the downdraft was practically meaningless. Another feature of this stage is playing down very bad scenarios and selectively concentrating on favorable aspects. From everything that I've read about that period and from the experiences of investors involved in the markets during that period, holding a bullish resolve during that vicious bear market was much, much easier said than done. What Glassman forgot to mention is that the peak reached in 1976 wouldn't be reached again until 1982 but hey, that is why he gets paid the big bucks working for one of the country's top newspapers. PaineWebber recently insisted [in the denial stage] that the Bear would remain slumbering indefinitely. Now that we are in the hope stage, their tune has change as evidence by their chief investment strategist's [Ed Kerschner] comments to the firm's customers: Absent a U.S. and European recession, this market is cheap. The stock market is approaching excessively undervalued levels, almost the mirror image of the overvalued levels reached in the early autumn of 1987. So basically, they are hoping that there won't be a recession even as deflation is spreading around the globe and the U.S. yield curve has inverted for the first time since the last recession in the early 1990s. Despair: In this stage, the investment glass is empty and shattered. Investor sentiment has been completely undermined by continued declines in the stock market. Undervalued stocks become even more undervalued and sharp rallies are always followed by even sharper declines. Although the bear market has been in place for quite some time, it is finally recognized by most investors. Even as stocks become more undervalued, investors begin to perceive them as risky and begin to gravitate towards other investment vehicles that have performed better during the same period. In the media, bad news is thrived on as much as good news was. Recall the Death of Equities article which basically wrote off stocks for good at the tail end of the 1966-1982 secular bear market. In my research, it was very difficult to find any articles professing that good times were just around the corner. A Bull during the stage of despair is about as well received as a Bear during the stage of denial. The media focuses on the "doom and gloom" because it is what the public acknowledges and accepts. I don't think articles such as the ones that James Glassman and other bull market advocates would have been very well received during the late 1970s. Eventually the despair becomes so great that the public loses interests in stocks entirely. This is one of the reasons why the Dow's P/E ratio fell to single digits after the 1973-74 bear market. Sure stocks were damn cheap, but it had been investors previous experience that they could fall even lower. fiendbear.com --------------------- for astro freaks stockmarketcycles.com