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Technology Stocks : INTEL TRADER -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MonsieurGonzo who wrote (3813)	9/6/1998 10:33:00 PM
From: Gersh Avery	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 11051

Yen up .. S&P up .. somethin's gotta give. Gersh

To: MonsieurGonzo who wrote (3813)	9/7/1998 4:00:00 AM
From: Berney	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11051

A Labored BAMBI Update We are privileged to live in interesting times! BAMBI is based on the weekly MACD technical indicator of the DJIA stocks. BAMBI has been a very good indicator of the general market direction during 1998. Tonight the international markets are telling us that all is well in the Land of OZ. BAMBI is not reflecting the same story line, and is 26 to 4 bearish. One (very important) bearish signal was indicated for last week: IBM. Over the last two weeks, the S&P declined a staggering 9.1%. None of the DJIA stocks escaped the wrath of the market. Only one stock finished flat for the two week period with all other stocks being negative for performance. In fact, there were some staggering declines (KO, 21.7%; AXP, 22.6%; TRV, 28.5%; and JPM 27.2%). Let's put the past in perspective. From 8/87 to 12/94, the Index increased 35.8% -- that's over more than a 7 year period. During the last 3 years and 8 months the Index increased 114%, even after the significant recent decline. Clearly, recent investors have unreasonable expectations as to Market investment returns. As the Dudes understand, I follow a group of stocks that I call the Big Boyz. Looking at the weekly charts is now meaningless for most of these stocks, so I expended some effort to look at the monthly charts. The monthly charts are providing a clear bearish signal of 64 to 5. Eight stocks are showing near-term monthly bearish signals: AIG, AXP, BMY, GE (the grand daddy of them all), MRK, MWD, T, and Zen. Note that these include two of the four legs of the bull markets -- financials and health care. Can a continued Bull Market rest on two legs? The fact is that when you look at the monthly charts of the Big Boyz, the charts are parabolic in nature. I believe that all financial excesses will, sooner or later, take care of itself. I call this the Peter Minuit Principle. The financial stocks have shown us what can happen when parabolic charts correct to the historical norm. I believe we are going to witness the correction in the other sectors as well. Beware! BWDIK Berney