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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Farrar who wrote (17752)	9/6/1998 11:00:00 AM
From: j g cordes	Respond to of 70281

Mike.. what I think of DANB and DBRN? It would help to know what time frame you're thinking of. So without that I'm forced to digress some and just look generally at retail. DANB DBRN.. is much the same as my opinion of retail at this time. Last weekend and part of this I've had the dubious pleasure of having to go to shopping malls. I'm not a shopper, yet the stores seemed busy and delivering the goods. US retail spending has fallen off a little, not a lot. There's been a concern_ that back to school is weak, especially in such sectors as shoes. I've found this odd because I've never seen so many shoppers in shoe stores. The product pipeline worries, like in the computer component area, are being worked through at reduced prices consumers find attractive. I expect this process to continue... but in each industry its overcapacity that is the culprit. La Nina, they say, should bring cooler and wetter weather across the middle and northern continent. I think this will extend the 'shopping season' longer than analysts' expect, as people realize they need new coats, sweaters, and shoes to combat colder weather. This might even coincide with some style changes that take hold. The key question we should be considerate of is not how the retail shopper is feeling, but how the stock market shopper is feeling. We could have increased retail sales and profits and not have any response in the stock market. Bear this in mind when considering any TA which heavily relies on projecting repetitive patterns. DANB.. bounced off '96 - '97 channel top support and has overhead resistance shy of 20. Easy movement within this range... on great results could go to 22 but I doubt it over the next three months. DBRN.. interesting as its numbers are very similar, but less upside convicition in trading. The retail numbers over the next few weeks will offer some support but not a bounce back to highs. The consensus seems to be that we've gone too low over reacting to events that don't have a 1:1 correlation with our markets. But consensus is clearly showing a prove it first attitude that these same problems won't have a long term effect... thus PE ratio's are being cut back. Not much more is known and the rest is speculation. I like the most beat up sectors including base commodity, beaten up retail like NKE, RBK, FEET.., beat up software like ORCL, beat up speculative technology like AFCI, MRVC... look at what happened to CATP when it warned of declining business. Investors didn't even listen to what they said, which was that the revenue growth rate would decline from 50% to 40-45%... NOT that business would be down 40%. Talk about overkill. If you can visit some stores.. ask how business is, if any sales are on the horizon or if the warehouse needs to be unloaded at a discount to make way for new shipments. Jim