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Strategies & Market Trends : Tech Stock Options -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MonsieurGonzo who wrote (51644)	9/6/1998 8:00:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 58727

Steve, >>>>>>>> ...indecisive sentiment favours a reversal of the (three-day) short-term DownTrend; momentum traders would require break-down below 7400 or break-out above 7900 to act; last Tuesday's Hammer still intact (except on BKX.X, where it collapsed); over-sold is am unerderstatement; kapital will return from holiday weekend cash/time-deposit accounts (in the absence of further currency devaluation news); maximum pain for options holders is above ~8000; etc. Upon any bounce up to ~8100, we should short LatAm <<<<<<<<<<<< The following statement may sound like I want a bear market, but that is not true. Frankly I want the market to get back to a range trading trend, and for personal reasons, a range trading trend is when I make the most, playing the clear oscillations. Calling direction in either a strong downtrend or uptrend (JAN-MAR) is really tough. I also believe that a rangetrading trend is required before the market can get back to an uptrend, as was the case after the OCT crash where the market was in a trading range for over 2 months before breaking out. Dont think it every happened when the market lost 15% or more and immediately rebounded into an UPTREND and recouped all the losses immediately. I really dont want to see 8100 on this upswing and I strongly believe that it would be even worse for this market if it did get to 8100. I have my GUITAR which is telling me that if we go to 8100 we could really dump hard into the 6000's or even lower. Its mathematical, but the easiest way to explain is think of a rubber band - the harder you pull it the harder it snaps back. It could cause a situation of overshooting the downside, and if it overshoots too much it could then snowball and intensify the overshoot. Lets look at it from a standpoint of cash. Lets say that we do move up to 8100, firstly it will not be easy and will consume alot of cash from the mutual funds, and keep in mind that 8100 is still within normal retracements of a reflex rebound, which many uses the figure of 62%. If we get to 8100 and cash does not start to come back into the equity market, when the selling starts again there will not be much cash to stall/slowdown the downswing. Also if it happens now that we run to 8100, this would be a bad timing since we are not even into OCT yet, and there are many strong fears of OCT, so that should be another obstacle for people to put money into the market right now(SEPT/OCT). I feel that if we get to 8400-8500, convincingly breaking 8100 resistance within the next immediate upswing, then there is a good chance that money may start to flow back in, but 8100 would hurt the market rather than help it. Few will believe me, but It is best for the BULLs not to hope for 8100 at this time. Just let it stay down here, but above 7400 until the end of OCT and then go for a break of 8100 in NOV. However that type of patience would not be in line with our culture of - we want it now not tomorrow, BUT NOW!!!!!!!! I know many will think I am off the wall with the above comment, but I really hope I did make some sense. Seeya