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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: OVETUS who wrote (26652)	9/6/1998 8:28:00 AM
From: robnhood	Respond to of 94695

Something I have noticed in some of the stocks I trade and follow over the last year or so... First stories and rumours of good earnings or something of that nature, usually repeated several times. Large thinly traded jumps in the price of the stocks. Next good earnings reports usually beating estimates . Now extremely high volume with smaller up moves and plenty of large prints. (funds buying, insiders exercizing options and selling) Finally the best earning report,, a small jump in the price of the stock,, usually new high,, and then a slam of relentless selling driving the price considerably lower (sometimes in half or more in a very short time span) while astonished and shocked bagholders stare in disbelief. IMHO,, heavy distribution has been taking place and they will dump the tag ends of what they have hard and fast before anyone smells the coffee . They've been had. Is that coffee were smelling? russell

To: OVETUS who wrote (26652)	9/6/1998 10:42:00 AM
From: BubbaFred	Respond to of 94695

Don't forget that US Treasury Sec'y Bob Rubin came the financial industry. It is human nature to be on the greedy side of putting more money in the pocket and to follow the herd of those winning stocks. One reason is the gradual rise of stock price, over period of time, which makes it easier to perpetuate and gain a larger herd of shareholders on its way up. Potential loss for being on the wrong side is more manageable. On the other hand, stock falls are much sharper and quicker than a blink of an eye, and many get caught off guards. The resulting loss for being on the wrong side is much more severe with much less response time and very difficult to swallow. Anybody with any amount of money can buy stocks and many more people can be drawn in to share the prosperity. That's the reason the market can go excessively. (Happens with real estate market also. I remember the peak of California real estate in early 90's when people lined up to sign contracts for unbuilt houses in a new development and paid 25% higher than they were selling two years later.) Several times in the past, Alan Greenspan has warned of the excessive valuation of the market. In my book AG is fair and square. AG also opposes putting Social Security funds into equity investment.