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To: donald sew who wrote (51647)	9/6/1998 11:51:00 AM
From: Dnorman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

Don: Can you explain a little about your OEX spread? What expiration month? Are you buying both puts? Selling one buying the other? What effect does market going up versus going down have on it? Thanks Dennis

To: donald sew who wrote (51647)	9/6/1998 12:58:00 PM
From: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9	Respond to of 58727

Now Now FG you are a better stock picker than you let on.....remember those repeated warnings to deaf ears about LU??? I like ATG's analysis...not that I disagree or agree...but I like what he presents....so here is another one... +Tom Trader (3326 ) From: +Arik T.G. Sunday, Sep 6 1998 8:58AM ET Reply # of 3343 Tom, Glad to hear that your system gave a continuation sell signal, I've been waiting for this kind of confirmation. How many in a row already? The rally of the last half hour of trade remains a mystery. Some say short covering - But why would the shorts wait for the close on a long weekend Friday? Some say because Brazil shot back up- But the BOVESPA still closed 6% DOWN. IMO it was an orchestrated rally in order to keep the media (relatively) quiet for the weekend. The OEX closed just high enough to remain up for the year. Looking at the last hour of trade, the future held 958.5 as flat bottom from 15:04 to 15:17, remarkably long while, then there was a failed rally for less then 10 minutes to 965. As the market fell to a new low of 956.5 at 15:32, the future, which made 955 a minute before, jumped to 959 and waited for the market at 958.5-960. The market rallied quite sluggishly to 959, and the future zoomed to 964 at 15:37. The rest was probably short covering, but the reverse from what looked like an accelerating decline is what raises my suspicion. After all, the big houses could lose a lot more business should the market continue south, and an optimistic close helps them prevent more bad media over the weekend. Looking ahead, I still think that the first 20 minutes of trade on Tuesday will tell the tale: If we gap up ATO then the decline from 9/2 top to 9/4 bottom was the b of 2 of 3, and the c can take us back to 1020-1030 area Wed afternoon. IMO we'll crash from there, but if we close over the 13 DMA (around 1025-1030 by then), then all bets are off- crash phase is over. Since every indicator I look at still points to the crash phase as running full steam ahead medium term, then if we open up the following is a very good scenario: Tuesday up 2.5%, daily high flirting with SPX 1000. Wednesday mostly up, daily high SPX 1018 around 14:15, then starting to reverse, closing slightly down. Then IMO The Big One will hit in a Thu-Fri-Mon crash combination. If we gap down, then I was only two days early, and we crash straight down. Looking at individual stocks, these two scenarios both make sense. INTC, PG - Should head straight down. I would be surprised if not. KO, GE - have some room to maneuver, more to KO Will continue later