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To: Larry S. who wrote (16176)9/6/1998 5:46:00 PM
From: DanZ  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 53068
 
LSI, VLSI.

Larry,

These two companies did announce that revenue would be 5% to 10% below last quarter. Is that good? NO. But it's not that damned catastrophic either, especially considering the state of the semiconductor industry right now. VLSI will still do about $130 million in revenue this quarter but investors are treating both companies as if they are going out of business. VLSI is trading at nearly 50% of it's book value. This is despite the fact that the CFO said that their property is worth about $1 per share more than is being carried on the books. Yes, inventory and fabs can be worth less than are carried on the books, but still, these are both ongoing concerns that are trading as if any future earnings are worthless. So while you are correct about their reporting negative revenue growth, these stocks are not going to 0. Where they find support is anybody's guess, but as you noted, they are well oversold and the indicators would suggest to me that both are ripe for a countertrend rally. Semiconductor sales are slowing but they aren't coming to a grinding halt. One day sales will start growing again and I think these two stocks have over-reacted.

LSI news: lsilogic.com

Dan



To: Larry S. who wrote (16176)9/6/1998 6:15:00 PM
From: Ron McKinnon  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 53068
 
random stuff

kind of glad I'm taking this market break
reading things and looking over charts I can't get any kind of a solid read

I'm sitting on my holds
bought some DELL at 105 1/2 on Thur; looking for a post split 10% this next week
in a tad of BKB Fri at 35 1/4 I have still been flipping this for modest gains every few days as it falls and retraces some

oils service stocks, may be a bottom, may be a head fake, or may be a new low trading range

da banks, not sure but very attractive for longer term holds

da techs; not a clue for now but why not some of the top tier on dips?

GCO I've continued to add 1000 on each 1/8 drop from 5 1/2 and flip for 1/4 or so on price pops
sold some NITE out the other day and may reload some in the 7 area

no real input; no strong feelings

Fishing report

Thur
80 degrees calm seas
2 big sharks
1 tuna hook up, pulled hook in 20 minutes

Fri
decent seas
1 monster shark, thought it was a tuna at first; stupid fish came back twice to mess up our gear after we let it go
so "educated" it with a shotgun
1 tuna hook up, lost after 25 minutes; pulled hook

Sat
25 knot winds out of the West
6 foot seas; some rollers to 8
few boats out
nasty and nutso conditions

tuna hook up; lost in 10 seconds
30 seconds later, 2 nd; lost in 20 minutes, broken line
finally landed one at 1:30
fish came by the boat after 1/2 hour; gave a good harpoon shot
I missed the first try but the dumb fish stopped in its tracks and gave another chance
quick consider the size and sea conditions
fiah must have wanted a free ticket to Japan
600 pounds
484 dressed out

price = 1 5/8 on a 1000 share lot
not good but ok considering the $/Yen and low fat content

trying again Mon and Tue if the seas calm down

good trading to all; be patient