To: limtex who wrote (8175 ) 9/6/1998 10:59:00 PM From: Alejandro Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 12468
Limtex: OK, you have brought forward a few interesting notions that we are both familiar with. Here goes my view on the countries you mentioned. For the benefit of the thread, I consider this OFF TOPIC mostly. 1. Japan Japan has been using the US ever since the US defeated Japan and the US tried to help them rebuild. Japan has been dragging their heels in every case when it came to them increasing imports from the US. <<So as far as predictions go the Japanese were right on target. One commentator calls the Japanese economy the mother of all slumps.The markets would tank on Monday with just this news but we've got some more....>> Why the hell would our stock market tank ? Japans market would tank because we buy much more from them than they buy from us. A failure in Japan would mean that all those people in that little island would have to find a better way to compete in the world market. The economy of Japan is sliding. It started some 15 years ago when Japan had money to throw around. Let's see what happens this week. Japan is a good example of the tail not wagging the dog. Well, unless the tail owns the dog. Which is not the case. 2. Russia I agree that Russia is stark mad. This isn't something new to you and I. The rouble, or ruble, as you prefer, has not been a major currency. Actually, they prefer dollars or gold from Russia. The failure of Russia has no effect on the US other than those who don't have a clue, get all shook up because Russia IS IN TROUBLE. They cannot relate to the old USSR and today's Russia and the splinters. The Russian exports to us and our exporting to them is small on the grand scheme. I don't think the average person knows that Russia has no affect on the US. There is nil income now. 3. Banks I don't know what could go REALLY wrong in world banking. For the most part, those who control money, will not throw it away. I don't see major banks financing unstable or failed economies. Do you see money being pumped into Cuba ? Somolia ? etc etc Albania ? 4. Clinton I don't care what he does with his private affairs. I feel for his daughter first, then his wife on these circumstances. In Europe, as you know, this is a rather normal event. Well, not if you are caught. This will not affect the stockmarket limtex. If it does, we have a bunch of idiots investing. 5.South America OK South America. Brazil is the most influential to the US economy with Argentina second. Could the failure of either cause a downturn in the US ? I don't think so. Because, when interest rates were very high here, banks in Brazil were offering the money for half the world rate to get the business and create jobs in Brazil ? So was France. In these two cases, I was involved. 6. Italy I clearly understand your analysis of Italy and the lire. However, I think it is a non-event as well as some other currencies of countries south and east of Italy. The currencies of Morocco, Algeria, Turkey, Libya, Greece etc should not cause you, from a world currency posture, a problem. Western Europe, including France, Spain , Germany and of course the non- European UK have more impact. In closing, limtex, I think it impossible to relate WCII to world events. It is not only impossible, it is wrong to even try. Your thoughts lend themselves to the market in general and not WCII. Russia, South America, Italy and Clinton lag behind Japan in the stock market effect. Titanic is a country I am not familiar with . Therefore, I disagree that any of them will steer our stock market. But if I am wrong, which under a combination of highly unusual circumstances could be a remote possibility, WCII is insulated from any of these possibilities. Got to go limtex, I'm trying to get some lire to convert to pounds so I can get more WCII . Oh well----- ac