Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stock bull who wrote (7719)	9/6/1998 6:03:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

stock bull, a read, i think it was on the big kahuna thread or the stock market bubble thread, where a government official stated how difficult it was for china not to devalue and that china was a paying a very high price. he also said that the current situation wasn't sustainable "forever." i'll try and find the link. positives, which i believe are already more than priced in stocks already (at least the big caps, some small caps look CHEAP! however, cheap can get cheaper in a bad market environment.), are: 1. very low inflation (excluding asset inflation which is ROARING) 2. very high employment in light of #1 (i like to work ;-) 3. people are still buying right now - incredible consumer confidence. 4. some industries are FINALLY realizing they have SERIOUS problems and are taking more serious action to resolve them - however, solving these problems isn't easy. 5. interest rates are very low (related to #1). my basic philosophy is that markets should discount danger signs, not reward zero expectation stocks ala amazon. my hope is that the us economy keeps chugging along w/o a major disaster. this may mean 0 growth or small growth. i don't see 20-30% growth anymore. a slow down in growth at near record valuations is very hard for me to swallow. which is why i'm in value small caps that have become more and more of a value ;-) even though i'm long i'm prepared for more punishment ;-( the irony is that almost every company except the 1990s version of the "nifty fifty" has been obliterated. bios down 65-70%. many, many decent small caps down 50-60%. lots of midcaps down 40%. the nifty 50 is down about 20%. so, are the fav stocks gonna catch up to everyone else or visa versa. with the winds of change swirling with tons of uncertainty, if nothing else, i see lots more risk than reward. ironicly, i believe the brain dead big momo guys bid the market up to ridiculous levels - no analysis required, none offered. if those types begin selling, rationally or not, look out below. break that trend line and you can drop a long way...