Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (6199)	9/6/1998 3:02:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 9980

Ramsey, I have said long before (almost a year now) that the solution for the current situation is for Japan to stimulate demand domestically so as to absorb some of the excess capacity created in the rim. Some capacity will have to written off as well. The long term outlook, assuming Japan steps to the plate and discharges its responsibilities as the second largest economy, is actually quite bright. I see the worldwide number of "consumers" doubling within some 10 to 13 years worldwide and thus the world economy growing with that trend. I have been talking for some time about two themes, the Sep/Oct minimelt and the liquidity driven prosperity in our markets. If Greenspan moves on his last speech before October (which I doubt very much, I think he'll want to see some of the exuberance taken out, or the mid 6000 or so), we have had our minimelt, IMHO. If, as it is more likely, AG will not move until the market are lower, or as a rescue operation if the markets become too "desperate", we will see the minimelt and from where we are, it will bring us to the mid 6000 where AG will be comfortable in lowering interest rates. Zeev

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (6199)	9/6/1998 5:25:00 PM
From: Ron Bower	Respond to of 9980

Ramsey, As many have stated the crisis started with the devaluation of the Thai Baht and you state the entire mess was a result of hedge fund attacks on the Baht, ergo the hedge funds were the cause of this entire breakdown of the emerging markets. I have a problem with the first premise believing it was Japanese banks not realizing the consequences of China devaluing the Rmb. They, through ASEAN, continued expansion with low interest borrowing until it grew beyond demand. At the same time, the US and European banks were doing the same thing in Latin & South America and the former Soviet Union. No one was paying attention to what the competition was doing, everybody was too busy making money and expanding to make more money. IMO -There had to be a fundamental weakness for the fall of the minor currency like the Thai Baht to trigger a devaluation of the yen. While consumer demand in Japan is needed, it would seem that even a large increase would be insufficient to offset the damage that's already been done. Perhaps a reshuffling of the the markets would prompt the stability and confidence needed to drive a global demand. Note: Surveys in Hong Kong show confidence increasing and there's indications that it's justified. JMHO, Ron