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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sure Thing who wrote (53798)	9/6/1998 8:39:00 PM
From: Robohogs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 61433

I will update analysis as stocks move toward mid October but here is a preview. Assuming no moves in estimates and move back toward $85 for LU and back to $45 area for ASND, I would believe a 35-40% premium would be in order versus the 50%+ today. This would bring comps, DCF and premium paid all into line with the market comps and would yield $60-65 versus likely $55-60 currently. I personally don't think ASND has to do any deal and believe they will hold out for price. I also wouldn't be surprised by a staged "hostile" bid from LU that became friendly as this could speed up process although it would have to be handled properly for any chance at pooling. Finally, I think the bear is near an end with avg stock down 50% - one of worst bears in a long while. Makes me laugh when people say 9 out of 10 stocks will get killed in this bear market as Ackerman did in that SF Chronicle column. Hasn't that already happened? Hasn't the avg small stock investor (as opposed to index mutual fund buyer or large cap growth buyer) already been killed? I have been pulverized. My only fear is that the grossly overvalued large caps have already largely bounced. DELL, INTC, LU, CSCO, KO (yes still), GE, AMZN, YHOO, MSFT and some others are attracting new money all over. The only thing this bear move has done is to make that move more pronounced. The eventual bottom can't occur until these stocks give up the ghost. How that doesn't re-energize downside moves in the small caps i haven't figured out yet.