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Strategies & Market Trends : Investment in Russia and Eastern Europe -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: P.T.Burnem who wrote (637)	9/6/1998 7:04:00 PM
From: Rob Shilling	Respond to of 1301

Ah !! PT, my favorite bear is back !!! It is bears like you that have allowed me to buy LUKOY and ROS at firesale prices !!! By the way there is fairly big volume for both LUKOY and ROS in America and in Frankfurt. You are correct that there is a lot of corruption. But in the 1930's there was a lot of corruption in America. Would it have been a good time to buy stocks back then ???? In fact today we still have a mafia. But the beauty of capitalism is that it squeezes inefficient asset holders. Like I stated, one of the oligarchs that owned SBS-agro bank lost everything he had in it, because he did not allocate his capital correctly. The fact that the Oligarchs have siphoned off money and not reinvested is why Russia is where it is today. Short term they have made alot of money, but long term they will be squeezed. They can't avoid the changes coming unless they are willing to let Russia implode. As far as Victor C. being corrupt. Probably to a point. But he has what Sergei K. didn't, contacts and trust from heavyweights in Russia. That will allow him to make changes with less resistance than Sergei K. Remember back in 1997 Russia had small but positive economic growth under Victor C. So re-electing him is not insanity because Russia will gladly trade 1998 with 1997!! Russia is going to come out of this crisis stronger than before. We are witnessing the last gasp of communism in Russia (IMHO). The Duma communists are in the minority in their thinking as far as going back to the Soviet era. Every day that passes the communists become more outnumbered by people that have tasted capitalism and not communism. That in itself will keep communism from overpowering Russia Monday is the big day. It is 6:00 central time on Sunday now. In seven hours Frankfurt will open and we will be able to see if some of the weekend news is viewed positively. Also, as Frankfurt opens the Duma and Yeltsin will start their roundtable discussions. I am betting that there will be positive political news, positive gains in the stocks and a strengthening of the ruble.