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Strategies & Market Trends : Three Amigos Stock Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LTK007 who wrote (8421)	9/6/1998 10:38:00 PM
From: James Strauss	Respond to of 29382

Good post Max... There has never been a BEAR market in a low interest rate environment... That doesn't mean that it can't happen... The market deterioration is trying to tell us something... Hopefully we'll get the message before there is too much additional downside... Jim

To: LTK007 who wrote (8421)	9/6/1998 11:56:00 PM
From: Sergio H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29382

Max, thanks for the Barron's article. Did you notice that it mentioned the falling prices on natural resources? The fundamentals changed before the article was printed. Natural resource stocks in oil, energy, diamond, gold and other sectors were up strongly on Fri. Two weeks ago we could have discussed the strength of the US dollar and its effect on global markets and the US market. Now we can discuss the weakness in the US dollar. We've been experiencing a test at every market level. This test will soon come to an end and market trend will be established. The retail sector looks interesting as you noted, but not straight across the board. Select stocks on a respective and individual basis in this sector. Look at the vol. late Fri. when price went up in the stocks that you mentioned in the retail sector. No real change in vol. Look at DELL and IBM for the last hour of trading on Fri. Check out the price and vol. increases. Do you see any difference? Sergio

To: LTK007 who wrote (8421)	9/7/1998 12:24:00 AM
From: j g cordes	Respond to of 29382

Max, there's a little hoooy in that Barrons article. For example: "..Normally, when bond yields fall, stock prices rise. It's easy to see why. Lower interest rates raise price/earnings multiples while also reducing financing costs for companies, and therefore boost corporate earnings. However, since late March, the yield on the 30-year Treasury has fallen by 10.4%, but, instead of rising, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index has fallen 9.59%." Actually this is a glaring error which I can only assume is intentional for pushing a negative commentary. Look at these two charts, one the S&P500 and the other the 30 Yr Treasury. Its obvious they tracked each other quite well into July when Asian worries began to flatten stock market confidence and funds began shifting into Treasuries as a safe haven: quote.yahoo.com Jim