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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: His Pinkness who wrote (14653)	9/7/1998 12:47:00 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 152472

Your Pinkness, the argument has been around since people more closely resembled chimpanzees. A clever chimp figures out something or learns how to pick the best apples from the top of a tree using a long piece of bamboo. In a flash, the others copy the smart chimp or simply steal his bamboo pole. Humans have contrived to move a little beyond kleptocracy, having learned that simply stealing the producer's efforts leads to little being produced. Sure enough, the dumb thugs get all frustrated because they are too stupid to do anything themselves, so gang up and beat up on the creative ones, stealing the goods. You are suggesting that there are so many of them, that Qualcomm should simply say, "Oh gee, okay boys, you sure are looking angry and unhappy and geopolitically tough. I guess we better go for appeasement. Let's get Neville Chamberlain's piece of paper and see how to fill it in. That should get peace in our time". Well, it didn't work then and it won't work now. Why should Qualcomm care at all how annoyed the spoilt SETI crowd get? There is nothing SETI can do. Of course it is in the interests of cdma users to not pay Qualcomm any more royalty than they have to. Like spoiled brats, they'll kick and scream and moan about usury, and any other rot to get their political mates to steal from Qualcomm. Well, Qualcomm can just go right ahead and produce the goods all by themselves. The rest can stick with GSM or try to produce their own CDMA which they don't have a hope in hell of doing according to everyone who knows anything about the patent portfolio. Qualcomm is producing a cellular system which Sprint can sell at cheaper than landline costs. So, leave Europe to their GSM. They can put a political fence around it and rot for 1000 years, using only GSM. They have signed some free trade agreements though, so they'll have to watch those go up in smoke. As well as that, there are intellectual property laws and the USA doesn't take kindly to seeing USA companies having their IP stolen. The USA has a very powerful trading and military system to back it up. If Europe really wants to go down the keptocracy route, they will find it very, very expensive. They would be best to pay up. And be grateful to Qualcomm. If a licencee doesn't show due appreciation of Qualcomm's efforts and instead moans and grizzles, they should be invited to get lost and invent their own system. Let them adopt anything but Qualcomm. Let them be pissed off. Let them try to sell GSM at 40cents per minute with Tero's amazing handsets against Qualcomm's 10 cents per minute, with Q-Phones. The pressure is much more on SETI than Qualcomm. Every day, Qualcomm suffers opportunity cost by not selling into Europe. Every day, L M Ericsson and those not licensed for cdma2000 suffer a much much greater opportunity cost. L M Ericsson needs to get their big, fat, cheque book out and fork out the billions it is going to cost them for a cdma licence. The Koreans can learn what a contract means. L M Ericsson adopted ABQ for years and look at their position now. Heading the Motorola way, but without the cdmaOne licence. Nokia has a position in all technology and will be twice as big as that reprobate organization L M Ericsson. Let others join ABQ as well. They can wander in the GSM wilderness for as long as suckers go on ordering new systems. Which won't be long. If the USA joins Europe in a confiscatory judicial and political approach to Qualcomm's rights, some will cheer. Others will think it a bleak day for the future of human development. Back in the USSR. We don't know how lucky we are now. Just what do you think Qualcomm should do? Just be grateful for whatever L M Ericsson offers? Don't worry, the pressure is on the Kleptocracy. The USA is strong and has been in favour of capitalism, free enterprise and private property for a long time. Americans might think OJ didn't do it, but they aren't totally stupid, so won't want to just surrender to the ignorant aliens who shout "Stand and Deliver". Mqurice PS: Actually, Qualcomm can't go ahead and produce cdma all by itself because they have licensed many companies already and those companies have the right to go right ahead and produce. That includes cdmaOne and cdma2000 systems. Philips being a cdma2000 licencee and I suppose Lucent and Nortel. Not sure about Motorola. Maybe others too. cdma2000 is well underway. Size is nothing. Brains are everything.

To: His Pinkness who wrote (14653)	9/7/1998 1:19:00 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 152472

Anyway, in what way does Qualcomm represent a sinking ship? Sales are expanding at an enormous pace. Technology for cdmaOne has gone from a standing start to 15 million users in a couple of years, with the pace accelerating. Globalstar is launching 12 satellites from Kazakhstan in a couple of days and will define a worldwide standard whether SETI likes it or not. Qualcomm owns a chunk of that and supplies the telecommunications part of it and a share of the handsets. cdmaOne has gone from 'breaching the laws of physics', too late to market so can't succeed anyway, only working with Chicken Wire and Bubble Gum in a cobbled together half-baked fashion with power control problems and handoff shambles expected by the GSM experts [L M Ericsson and others], too financially weak, wrong about capacity, unstable under load, all the negative FUD rot under the sun, to being the fought over and demanded and 'stopping the whole industry' and Qualcomm is too small to hold the industry to ransom etc etc and blah blah blah. You think this is a sinking ship? Earnings are dropping to the bottom line flat out. Royalties are booming. ASICs are selling like hot cakes. Including in Korea which allegedly sank several months ago. Per minute prices have been dropping flat out, undercutting wireline charges in the USA. Licencees have been signing up year in year out. Competitors such as Motorola and Nokia have been unable to come up with successful competing cdmaOne handsets. Motorola's infrastructure has been problematic. cdmaOne has met customer expectations and is most popular where people have the choice. GSM is chosen by Europeans over cdmaOne because there are not many cdmaOne handsets on sale in Europe. Qualcomm is running away with it all. Omnitracs continues to be the market leader, gaining customers and raking in the revenue increasingly quickly. Switching to Globalstar soon, making more of the revenue in-house. Eudora is doing okay. 3Com and other partners are developing cdma2000 and other applications flat out. The Web via Unwired Planet and other partners is seeing Qualcomm sitting at the centre of wireless connection like a great, big, Daddy Long Legs. Tell me, what on earth makes you think Qualcomm looks like a sinking ship? Sure the share price is down. But that is a function of people believing the Korean panic, the end of Russia, the stock market disaster, the 3G confiscation of Qualcomm's IP. It is nothing to do with how well the actual sales of Qualcomm's products are going. Sales are booming. Despite the problems in Korea, Russia, Japan, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Brazil, New Zealand, Malaysia, etc etc. Because buyers tell you your Qualcomm shares are only worth $42 and some people believe them and sell, doesn't mean that IS what they are worth. What they are worth is the earnings they can make, which is a function of their revenue and costs. Even the old loss-making infrastructure side is heading for profit. Stuff like that! No Worries, let L M Ericsson and SETI sweat. The Sense of the Senate is that Qualcomm's technology is a critical interest of the USA. Despite the amazing interpretation put on the Senate's statement that this was gung ho for GSM, the statement means Qualcomm will get USA backing, politically, judicially, in trade, in international organizations and no doubt militarily. Just as the USA faced down Russia when they kidnapped a Qualcomm employee, they will face down Europe if they steal Qualcomm's IP. Mqurice