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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Carl R. who wrote (6213)	9/7/1998 2:22:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Carl, considering the beating these markets have taken in the last three months (many of them cut in half or at least 30%), I think that this would be a rally in a bear market, not the bottom. We will see if tomorrow night the enthusiasm continue. The Nikkei will be face with a serious resistance at about 15,300, I do not think it will take this out. Until Tuesday, the Greenspan rally in Asia may very well subside. By the way, in his full speech there was exactly one minuscule sentence that could have been construed as leaning toward relaxation, or at least examining such an "impossible possibility" (to use Greenspan "speak"). I doubt Greenspan would want to remove the element of fear in a market that was driven by greed (what AG calls "psychological behavior"), unless this fear creates the danger of a melt down. So, I would play this rally if it comes, quite carefully. I doubt we will see 8000 before we see a new low under 7400. We may get close, but IMHO, that is about it. Zeev

To: Carl R. who wrote (6213)	9/7/1998 2:16:00 PM
From: Gersh Avery	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Drasticaly lowering interest rates did not work in 1929. The IMF, when looking at a country that has had it's markets hit hard demand that interest rates are raised. If our stock market (and the dollar) drop to the point that Fed intervention takes place, why would they not raise the rates to protect the US? Historicaly lowering rates has not worked .. just look at Japan .. if lowering rates worked wouldn't they have had the largest rate of return in the last few years? Gersh