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Strategies & Market Trends : Three Amigos Stock Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sandra who wrote (8440)	9/7/1998 8:09:00 AM
From: ChrisJP	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 29382

Wow, Great discussion guys ! Can't resist adding my .02. Unless something fundamentally changes the course of the world economy, the trend in the markets will be down (like most aren't down enough already to confirm this opinion !). This doesn't mean that there won't be spectacular rallies on the way down as we come off of oversold conditions (and the lack of bad news is treated like good news), but the rallies will be short lived. Japan has to institute reforms in their system. If they do, then we could recover. If they don't -- down we go. Also, someone has to find a cure for deflation. Any ideas ? Greenspan will not lower rates until he see the economy (i.e employment) weakening from deteriorating conditions. By the time he acts the DOW will be 6000 - 6500 (still above its long term trend line, BTW). Greenspan has no interest in protecting the 30% gains we have all made in the last 2 -3 years. (well gains I had until Feb of this year -- then OUCH !) I think his opinion on current stock market valuations is well documented. If Greenspan lowers rates, the rally will be spectacular. We will all remember it as the last time we made money going long in the market. My advice is to sell when the rally ends, move some of your money market funds into a mattress (or something that will hold its value, like beenie babies). A few years from now, as the economy continues to contract, people who used the stock market as their bank account or have large consumer debts and lose their jobs will have to sell big ticket assets (like homes) for fire sale prices. There will be lots of opportunities if you have the cash. Sorry for the gloom & doom, but this is how all speculative multi-year excesses end. No reason to think this time will be any different. I'm not predicting a Great Depression or World War III, just a long serious recession. Japan has been in one for a few years already. It should not be unthinkable that we will join them. Hope I'm wrong. Regards, Chris

To: Sandra who wrote (8440)	9/7/1998 3:31:00 PM
From: Sergio H	Respond to of 29382

Sandra, Clinton's future as President is a major concern for the market. Impeachment proceedings against him would be the equivelant of a vote of no confidence in his policies and the present condition of the stock market. If this is just a healthy correction, we should be seeing some value buying coming in shortly. World markets look great. Mostly in the black accross Europe, Asia and Latin America. Market should open higher tomorrow morning. Wonderful position for those that bought near the close on Fri. Look for continuing volatility until Greenspan puts to rest the interest rate question. The market will rally if the spin doctors label no rate change as a sign of our economy's strength. Sergio ps Thanks for the link. LOL

To: Sandra who wrote (8440)	9/7/1998 7:35:00 PM
From: Marty	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29382

Regarding that "buy what you know business", I was one of the first ones to buy Bandai... the company that makes the virtual pet pocket toys.. the Tomagotchis. Anyway, it went on to become the absolutely best selling toy in the world! Made all kinds of alliances, had all kinds of new applications for what it developed, had name recognition, major marketshare, and on and on. And it did nothing! and then it went down. Still doing nothing. See their thread here on SI. Turns out that it is a Japaneses company and, in retrospect, nothing over there in that market went up for any reason. Although I like the theory, there are always a lot of other ingredients in the soup.