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To: Gabriela Neri who wrote (17939)	9/7/1998 4:57:00 AM
From: Bobby Yellin	Respond to of 116791

I am not entertained. I am furious about his lack of compassion for all the people who have been "doomed already" by the monetary policies that have transpired by the governments. I guess those don't count as people to him. I wonder if the post about Massachusetts is true..that most people have not prospered in this "economic" or should I say paper boom.. ps I still recommend downloading mytrack.com for their news releases..comtex .. biz.yahoo.com

To: Gabriela Neri who wrote (17939)	9/7/1998 8:26:00 AM
From: Crimson Ghost	Respond to of 116791

From the oil service thread. Hedge fund think tank turns bullish on oil and agricultural commodities and bearish on bonds.Not exactly a negative for gold methinks. ____________________________________________________ Here's the Hedge Fund/Think Tank: <<Global Issues Increased Global Energy Demand Ahead by Tom Logie and Ken Francella, Global Investment Research, Inc. In the last issue of Magnum Hedge Fund Reporter, we forecast that the first quarter backup in Treasury yields would be followed by "a strong summer rally in bonds and interest-sensitive equities." Indeed, as of this writing in early July, Treasury yields have fallen 50 basis points to a new weekly and monthly low, while the S&P 500 and many European equity indices have rebounded to set new record highs. What's the outlook for the second half? We believe that by the end of the third quarter the global economy will reach an historic crossroads. It would appear that an increasing number of analysts and investors expect a further slide toward a pervasive, deflationary global slowdown. Yield curves in major western bond markets are flattening or inverting as investors rotate toward the perceived safety of high quality bonds. Yet, as we highlighted in our last update, such one-sided sentiment overlooks the real risk of "an unexpected, temporary drift into stagflation late this year into 1999." What if the world is poised for a reversal toward energy inflation? If the NYMEX price of crude oil rises toward $20 early next year as we expect, the result will be a 40 percent year-on-year increase in energy prices. Such energy inflation, combined with a similar sharp year-on-year rebound in agricultural commodity prices, may add to seasonal bond market selling pressures during the first quarter of 1999. But hasn't Asia's financial crisis and recession been the primary cause of weak energy demand over the past year? Although widely embraced, this key assumption is simply not true. A review of energy consumption by region indicates that mild El Nino weather conditions over the past 12 months were a far greater drag on global oil demand than the nascent economic contraction now deepening in the Pacific Rim. Yet, scientists monitoring conditions in the South Pacific confirm that the two-year El Nino warming ended in early May and has begun a rapid reversal toward its twin sister, a two-year cooling known as La Nina. Record hot and dry conditions in South Asia, Southern Europe, and the Southern U.S. are typical of the transition from El Nino toward La Nina. Expect Demand to Soar Looking forward over the next 9-12 months, we expect global energy demand to soar, even if the overall global economy softens. Meanwhile, we expect that oil production cutbacks will slowly bring supply and demand back into balance before the end of the year. Therefore, while we were strongly bearish on oil and oil patch equities from last fall through the first half of 1998, we believe the mid-year washout in energy prices has created an historic opportunity to overweight this key sector. In short, while cautious capital continues to rotate toward bonds, we strongly recommend that investors begin shortening bond portfolio duration over the next 3-4 months, and significantly increase exposure to energy. Hedge fund investors should also consider taking long positions in agricultural commodities--the El Nino-created conditions for bountiful harvests. As we have forecast since last fall, the resulting surge in supply, combined with destocking in Asia, triggered a collapse in grain prices. Historically, the shift toward La Nina cooling shortens and disrupts the growing seasons for soybeans, wheat, corn, and other crops. Such a largely unexpected contraction of supply, combined with restocking of depleted Asian food stocks, could trigger a strong rebound for agricultural commodity prices from September into the first half of 1999. >> ÿ_____________________________________________________ With crude trending upward; the end of El Nino & the advent of La Nina, many stocks up here 20-40%; unrest in the Middle East, Commodities at 27 year lows, Greenspan and World Leaders starting to infuse the Worlds Capital to generate ''demand'' and recovery in the International Economies - this is when I would be shorting the oilpatch allright....??? - hey maybe it's some kind of a double negative-reverse contrarian play ...???