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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee who wrote (20108)	9/7/1998 9:33:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Respond to of 50167

Lee -- Thanks, I think it is a good trade, no prices on Globex so far, every one here looking at Russian Duma for short term however this is first time since April that HSI has cracked the 20days and 50 days MA-- a second close up here will atleast clear a move to next plane, looking at Malaysia example I would think we should get their with or without Russia.. I also see that CAC is testing its support at 200 days MA and DAX trying to take out 200 days MA-- I go further and look at Straits I find that even Straits and Australia are attacking now that new resistance 862 and 2590, Aus has taken out the 20 days MA and hopefully get this next resistance out of the way. Nikkei at is at 14790 is a good close above that 14620 resistance and now poised to take out that 15324, I would like this to close above this level another day in a row... I am expecting as a result of huge losses suffered by hedge funds that they will unwind their positions on long bond soon- so far $ weakness is not associated with long bond sell off it is not flight of quality from US for me it is a seriously co-ordinated effort of G-7 that $ has weakened so much, the conditions are changing and players would need to look at this scenario in a very different manner.. I would think that divergence in Europe as a direct competitor to US is possible, even if Europe stays weak one needs to understand that European companies suffer the most due to $ increased competitiveness, for my forecasts to come to full circle Latin America should go for that big gains which we have seen in ASEA-- but the most satisfying thing in all this is that we saw it coming in ASEA we hit the nail on the head when we said ASEA and Latin America will benefit from this $ weakness, I wish this last forecast falls in place. The problem with our directional trades is that jig saw puzzles based on which we make our assumptions and place our trades should fall in place, today was satisfactory the real fun would be if Latin American pressure is off-- if that happens we will have four out of five uncertainties removed we will then be left with one DUMA vote even if they reject it I would think it will not so heavily weigh on the global markets- however subject to all five rumors being discounted and appreciation of $ weakness on translation adjustment of next month earnings we may be looking at much higher number than reduced expectations..