Poll finds Democrats trailing in top races
Monday, September 7, 1998
By Patrick Gauen
Illinois Political Correspondent
Copyright 1998 St. Louis Post-Dispatch
U.S. Sen. Carol Moseley-Braun and governor hopeful Glenn Poshard, at the top of
the Democrats' Illinois ticket, are both in trouble as the November election
approaches, according to a poll commissioned by the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and
KMOV (Channel 4).
Republican challenger Peter Fitzgerald led Moseley-Braun 46 percent to 35 percent
in a survey of 726 likely voters across the state, taken Aug. 31-Sept. 2.
The poll has a margin of error of 4 percent. In other words, Fitzgerald's lead over
Moseley-Braun could be as high as 19 percentage points or as low as 3 percentage
points.
In the governor's race, Republican George Ryan held a 10-point advantage over
Poshard, 47 to 37 percent, in a bitter contest that Ryan took early to tough television
advertising as yet unmatched by the leaner-funded rival.
President Bill Clinton, stung by scandal, retained a "favorable" image among
scarcely more than half the Illinoisans polled, but that was still substantially better
than the showing of either Moseley-Braun or Poshard.
Only Moseley-Braun among the Illinois candidates in the poll was perceived more
often unfavorably than favorably. Barely more than one person in three said she
deserves re-election; over half said she does not.
Pollster John Zogby of Zogby International, the firm from Utica, N.Y., that
conducted the poll, said the results are distressing for her quest to win a second
term.
"She's currently polling less than two out of three Democrats, and is losing almost
two to one among independents," Zogby said. "While she has the opportunity to take
advantage of her position on education, tax credits and health care, she gets very
poor marks on integrity."
In interviews, several poll participants said they were supporting Fitzgerald for one
reason only: They can't stand Moseley-Braun. "What do I know about Fitzgerald?
Just about absolutely nothing," said Thomas Peck, an ironworker from Sparta, Ill.
"But I do know Moseley-Braun."
Peck thinks she's too liberal, especially on the social issues he cares about: abortion
and gun control.
Moseley-Braun's best hope may be voters like Dexter Page, 60, who runs a
machine shop in Johnston City, Ill. He's not fond of her, but he dislikes Fitzgerald's
conservative views even more. "Conservative Republicans have been anti-Social
Security," Page said.
Governor's race
Poshard trails by an almost-identical margin in the gubernatorial contest, although
the top campaigns still have eight weeks to play out.
"Interestingly, the race for governor is not a done deal, though Democrat Poshard
needs to capture more of his own Democrats and build up support in the city of
Chicago and among African Americans, who are especially lukewarm toward him,"
Zogby said. "Significantly, Republican Ryan holds a 14-point lead among women."
While about one-fourth of those polled held unfavorable views of each Ryan and
Poshard, Ryan was viewed favorably by 61 percent, Poshard by just 44 percent.
The difference is that 26 percent were still unfamiliar with Poshard, a five-term
congressman from Marion. But only 10 percent didn't know Ryan, of Kankakee,
their secretary of state the past eight years and lieutenant governor before that.
Fitzgerald, a state senator and banker from Inverness, north of Chicago, was
virtually unknown statewide before the Senate campaign. But he built an image
considered favorable by almost half the likely voters, with 18 percent unfavorable
and over one-third unfamiliar or unsure.
Moseley-Braun, of Chicago, was seen favorably by 42 percent, but unfavorably by
48 percent. In the unfavorable category, 26.5 percent regarded her in fact as "very
unfavorable." Only one in 10 didn't know or couldn't rate her.
Women split evenly between her and Fitzgerald; he led by over 12 points among
men.
Predictably, Moseley-Braun led Fitzgerald in the Democrats' stronghold of Chicago,
58-31, and Fitzgerald was on top in the heavily Republican Chicago "collar
counties," 55-24.
But Fitzgerald showed a 44-31 lead in the Metro East area, where the electorate
usually favors Democrats. He held a 47-34 lead across the rest of the state.
About 63 percent of Democrats surveyed were committed to Moseley-Braun;
Fitzgerald was favored by 84 percent of the Republicans. Among independents, he
was the leader 46-26.
Whites backed Fitzgerald, who is white, 53-29; blacks backed Moseley-Braun, the
nation's first African-American female senator, 71-10. Hispanics were with her
57-31.
Fitzgerald, who is strongly against abortion, led Moseley-Braun 50-33 among
Catholics and 47-32 among Protestants. Jews favored her 54-28.
Generally, the older or wealthier the person surveyed, the more likely a vote for
Fitzgerald.
Fitzgerald seemed to resonate better with issues, despite Moseley-Braun's charge
that he represents the extreme political right.
He tied her - at 35 percent each - as the better candidate on education, by far the
biggest concern cited. Moseley-Braun wants to rebuild schools using federal tax
credits for buyers of no-interest bonds; Fitzgerald would largely eliminate the
federal role in education.
But in the next-most-important issues, taxation and crime control, Fitzgerald held
hefty leads in confidence, although his support for concealed-carry of weapons was
specifically unpopular.
Moseley-Braun evoked more confidence than Fitzgerald on health care and
environmental quality, but those registered lower on the scale of public concerns.
On integrity, 40 percent preferred Fitzgerald, 26 percent Moseley-Braun. She was
beset through her first term with investigations of campaign finances and allegations
of lavish personal spending, questions about the conduct of her campaign manager
and one-time fiance, and controversy over her friendship with the dictator of
Nigeria.
More poll respondents than not liked Moseley-Braun's stand favoring abortion
rights, but she lost ground on her past controversies.
Fitzgerald's personal wealth, estimated at $50 million early this year, was
not a significant issue, nor was Moseley-Braun's pioneering position among
black women.
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