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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (20126)	9/7/1998 2:37:00 PM
From: OVETUS	Respond to of 50167

IKE, thanks , i hope you are right, and the Nikkei keeps rising.. because it could be a technical bounce because of its oversold condition near term. I am also waiting to see if it keeps going up with no majors downturns. Later. take are. Juan Jose.

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (20126)	9/7/1998 4:04:00 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 50167

Just an opinion I have received from e-mail- . Market Commentary Traditionally the summer is a slow time in the markets with reduced participation due in part to holidays by both the professionals and the investing public. This leads to the type of volatility we have seen lately - fewer players, poor liquidity and erratic price swings. Last Friday afternoon was a classic demonstration of this phenomenon. With a significant number of market participants getting a jump on the last long weekend of the summer by leaving early the Hedge Funds worked their "magic." between the Chicago option pits and the NYSE. After somewhat of a lackluster day, around 2:00 PM the DJIA suddenly heads straight south and is down approximately 195 points on the session. Then, between 3:30 PM and the close, the DJIA gain 154 points to only close down 41 points on the day. These are the type of moves that are hard on individual investors who cannot be sure if they are indications of true market sentiment or, as we suspect, the work of some very sophisticated and well capitalized fund managers. This type of strategy is much harder to execute when the market has more depth, as will be the case after this weekend. With the banks and financial service stocks in some cases having their valuations cut by 50%, the large cap and/or Dow stocks are not looking as attractive as they were. Given the large amount of money that is still flowing into mutual funds, on a monthly basis, there will continue to be pressure to allocate a portion of this cash into equities-it is not all going to end up in bond and money market funds. As a result SNN believes that there will be a move to the smaller cap stocks over the next 6 months. The mid and small cap stocks have already had their correction and some of the aggressive small cap funds are presently showing the best percentage returns on the street. Also the fund managers are aware that they can influence small cap markets-not that we would ever suggest fund managers prop up stocks, but they are under tremendous pressure to perform. In summary, now that Labor Day is nearly out of the way, we think you will see a more positive tone to the market as everyone gets back to the business of making money.

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (20126)	9/9/1998 7:52:00 AM
From: OVETUS	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Ike>Yen is weakening again (138xUSD), what do you think now? you told me: " If domestic demand remains sluggish the global finance community cannot allow Japan to continue to negotiate its structural prolems of low consumption on back of literary triggering a second round of global devaluations, Yen weakness exerts a lot of pressure on ASEAN exports like Taiwan Korea Singapore even little bit of China is affected, now if the exports of these countries fall as result of market share being taken by Japanese their would be a real chance that China would go for that devaluation which would mean another round of crippling adjusments in the entire region.. The recent weakness of Yen was putting a lot of pressure on China and ASEAN economies even the HK peg was under severe threat one from the speculators as they could see that China is on brink of Yuan devaluation as her exports were suffering and second they knew that Chinese devaluation would have a averse affect on HK and HK Monetary Authorities will not be able to defend the peg, the peg could be taken out.. Now it is in this background I see that Yen strengthening against $ is a co-ordinated effort, it is going to help, these cyclical movements of currencies are part and parcel of balanced global demand, it was not in a very distant past that we had seen $ at 70 to Yen, it should have not been their at first place but due to factor of leverage the movements in markets are far too skewed, Japan never came out of that recession even at that high level against the $, the issue is not corporate profits in Japan the companies are productive enough the issue is that even at 0.25% Japanese are not able to lend, there are no credible borrowers, the credit squeeze is very unfrtunate smaller companies want credits but the banks are unable to lend as collateral demanded are very stringent, they need to prod dmeand they need to deregulate, they need to have a broad huge sale where they should put massive discounts or create inflation so people may spend now or buy now in absence of inflation sometime people just don't spend, last but not least permanenet huge tax cuts will only lead to higher savings it has to be a social change, the aging population should be encouraged to move in better living conditions, the young ones 'libido' need to recharged more children better bigger families, I am an optimist because I still see the demand in Europe very strong, domestic growth picking up and fortunately people are multiplying, deflation hit societies are not like US or Europe or free spending ASEANs.. If I take your argument on board it would be strange that Nikei has 700 plus rally after this fall and $ weakness, we were sitting at a very critical support we should have broken it to lower levels..US $ weakness is helping a lot of nations. I assure you that I try to fwiw express mu opinion very clearly, like any human being I have my bents but to hide certain facts will hit me very badly, on this thread I theorise my trades, anything I write I will execute as such I am very careful to look at all sides before taking a plunge, however since I am one small investor my views cannot be as cogent as a professor of economics, I try to make positive statements normative statements are out of my domain. Thanks for your very good response.. I tried to answer your questions but if you still have questions I will try to define my position further.. " is this mean that the cordinated effort is not working well to support the yen. Just a question? Thanks in advance for your kind response. ovetUS