Thanks, but are you saying deflation, inflation, or hyperinflation ?
The economies may be different, but the people are the same.
The technologies may be different, but this has always continued to change throughout time.
Oil tankers change course slowly..unless they suddenly sink.
Whether we had electricity, telephones, or gasoline engines does not change my point.
In the specific time period noted, there was a technological shift, liberating people from, in that case, farm labour.
The labour went to the cities, taking manufacturing jobs, creating goods. With the newfound paycheques, these goods were quickly absorbed, and more demanded, not unlike today and now.
And in spite of the huge demand, and in spite of the full employment, prices of goods, not just commodities, fell drastically....Deflation.
Comparing GDP, comparing population growth, and comparing standards of living leads one to see nothing of true comparison.
However, what if we remember to compare Human nature, actions and reactions. In this light, things may be more comparable as I believe that people of one hundred years ago acted and reacted to situations in the same predictable manner that they do/will today.
So, back to my question. Currently we are experiencing a technological shift, and it is liberating labour. This labour is finding alternate employment, and the economy is producing goods like never before. And consumption of these goods is seemingly endless, and yet, we are experiencing falling prices, at least in North America.
To me, this is Deflation in North America.
Now, to take this further, we no longer have the same visible military expenditures that we once had, and our aging baby boom population is approaching the savings years, waiting or adjusting for retirement, and spending less while they attempt to save for the unknown future, and there is not a huge wave of younger people behind to recreate the normal early years spending boom.
On top of our own little micro-theatre, the global situation has gotten somewhat out of hand with the various sociological and technological shifts of different and similar types.....
I guess, the way I see it, the technologies do not have to be mature for the world economy to slip into oblivion, and based on my points above, the world economy does not have to slip into oblivion to have deflation.
Indeed, a nice pace of inflation, properly controlled (for whatever that might actually mean) may be the best answer.
But for now, I see either Deflation, which currently appears to want recognition, or... I see hyperinflation if the various nations attempt to instantly fix their economic headaches...
Which is the most likely is the question I am trying to answer...?
SP |
