To: Lafayette who wrote (32453 ) 9/7/1998 3:06:00 PM From: rupert1 Respond to of 97611
Thread: (1) Russia and (2) Damning with faint praise. Monday evening in Europe and Viktor has been rejected again. Most people would prefer to see the matter settled, but most commentators are saying this evening that this is no different from the last time; the last PM-designate was overwhelmingly rejected twice and confirmed the third time because the Duma did not want to got to elections. There is a new element, namely, the financial crisis and the belief (or hope) among the communists and some others, that they could do better in elections. It is hard to see how, with winter coming on, and with Viktor having promised everybody a pay packet and a return to the gold standard. The other possibility is that Yeltsin will dispense with the Duma and rule by decree using Viktor as his CEO. This would give cause for his opponents to try to agitate for the return of democracy, but it might be welcomed by the population at large, at least as a short-term measure, especially if Yeltsin announced concrete measures at the same time. I suspect that the US would prefer this over a deal with the Duma which would allow reactionaries a greater say in economic policy. IMHO the Russian situation will continue to be a worry for a few days more, and might dominate concerns again, depending what happens after the next Duma vote, but should not prevent a sharp rally tomorrow. Much of the Russian stuff has been priced into the market; the problem will be if South America totters. Russia did not deter Europe from having a good day today. The UK market had the second largest point rise in history. On CNBC this afternoon, a caller asked a couple of analysts what they thought about CPQ. The answer was that CPQ was "one of the better box makers", and that after the DEC acquisition and inventory problems it was on the mend, but it was in a cyclical industry and could not be recommended as being particularly inexpensive for a "couple of years", that Dell had the superior manufacturing model but it could not be recommended because of its higher p/e. Very faint praise. I expect CPQ to double within a year. Victor