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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elmer who wrote (29142)	9/7/1998 5:14:00 PM
From: Harold S.	Respond to of 95453

The most bang for the buck will come from the land drillers when it is perceived that oil has turned the corner for good....take it to the bank!! Go UTI!!

To: Elmer who wrote (29142)	9/7/1998 5:48:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 95453

O/T George re: Banks.. & Elmer oil sectors.... O/T George re banks........ George; Very,very simply - the Banks without ''ANY'' - zero/nada/zip Asian, Russian ,South American or any International Exposure at all; are the play here. One of the classic - ''baby getting thrown out with the bathwater'' plays. Also; this is a sector where insider buying classically is a very,very strong indicator. Just research the sector here - Louis Navallier on CNBC just mentioned a few - also Title Insurance companies are a BUY. Elmer; ...on individual Oil sectors (man will the critics be salivating on this...) - no surprises here; Deepwater, low debt and lots of cash on hand; and high tech speciality niches. My Picks: Drillers -Deep Water: RIG ...great earnings reliability through 1999 & into 2000 DO ....best balance sheet - much more cash than RIG & much less debt, but not the long term contracts - I'd have no problem owning both, but DO is the conservative play here - only ESV and RDC to a lesser extent can compete balancesheet-wise, but they do not have the deepwater presence of DO/RIG. Drillers - shallow water: MRL ...low debt, good balance sheet. Geographically well diversified fleet presence and has a great MO_MO track record. Drillers Land: PTEN ...has a sleeper factor - huge daily volume, this gives liquidity and the MO-Mo potential, good Institutional following as well BDI & UTI ...along with PTEN have great upside - 2 1/2 - 3 baggers in just them returning pricewise to the April/May price levels - so great upside, but they have more downside and will lag in their bounce as deepwater drillers will move first here, but gotta love the 2.5-3 bagger possibilities. Also, while UTI allways gets mentioned as ''the'' natural gas oriented land driller - this is misleading; as all 3 do substantial nat gas drilling & BDI has the best technological advanced SCR Diesel Electric deep drilling Land Rigs; also with new acquisition is beautifully positioned in strong nat gas markets... Drillers Overall: I'd weight my driller subsector perhaps with 25% RIG 25% DO, 25% MRL and split the remaining 25% among these 3 land drillers...maybe even weight the deepwater higher - allthough I love MRL for ''trading'' here the best ! Service: ....here we do not have many companies with the cash & balance sheet strength of say DO, ESV, or RDC. - the leaders like EVI & RON - have higher debt and much less cash than the 3 aformentioned drillers. my picks: Service - big caps: EVI & RON - both Institutional fav's - great upside price appreciation potential and Industry Leaders. I would avoid SLB BHI & HAL - which I am sure will raise a few eyebrows; simply because they do not have the same upside % appreciation potential as EVI or RON and they are widely owned by those ''Pro's -?'' like we saw on CNBC who didn't know who UTI or Grey Wolf or FGII were -(can you believe a TV Oil Analyst who doesn't know FGII !) - these ''total market'' or ''Value'' fund managers do not know the sectors well and own the big 3 SLB BHI HAL and will dump in huge volume like we saw last week - so why get in the way of Institutions who will dump first and biggest on a non-energy related event, more total market related... or just dump to raise cash for redemptions in a total market selloff etc. - just my opinion. I see no reasonable risk vs. reward scenario to support owning the big 3 versus say RON & EVI. small - mid cap service/speciality service-mfg: Now I love this sector - here is where the long term big moneywill be made by continued EPS growth in addition to big short term bounces. FGII ...gotta love the upside return potential from the recent $10 to its $40 level of May... I look for those 4 baggers- Margin it and start looking to pay cash for that new Lincoln Navigator by next May ! FGII has a great niche, big backlog and excellent EPS growth going forward and will benefit on the deepwater growth. VRC & DRQ - great product line - deepwater oriented and super upside price appreciation potential. DRQ has stronger cash & balance sheet than VRC - VRC is more of the MO-MO fav... MY favorites here --- CXIPY, SCSWF & CDIS - ultra-deepwater plays here; great technological expertise and/or proprietary products with CXIPY's flexible pipe, high barrier to entry - CDIS with subsea vessels... these 3 are THE growth plays in specialy-niche Deep Water - personally; my early big bounce profits will be primarially be plowed into these 3 and then OMNI, VTS, PGO, NOI, IO... Last, but not least an intersting little stock - CLB/Core Labs - a Institutional fav with great MO-MO potential, a technological leader, has quietly made great International acquisitions; these guys should be a good defensive play in volatile Crude enviroments - as their products/services become more necessary when margins are squeezed - they maximize production and are branching out into non-Oil service areas as well. I like FLC & KEG as 2 companies that are highly financially leveraged here - making acquisitions and if crude pops big and soon - they will look awfully smart; having leveraged themselves financially when assets were at the low end... On some big names like TDW or others in the boat/marine sector - good only for diversification IMHO; history has taught us they will not have the price appreciation/return of driller and other service companies...imho. I tend to look for the most bang for the buck returnwise... look at where the curent price compares to the recent prior price levels of April/May - which is a pretty moderate price target to use imho. Some stocks like NOI & FGII are 1/4 of their former levels here - I like to seek out those 4-baggers; ''Elephant Hunting - if you will... if I then like the company, their financial condition/balance sheet - these are the stocks I would like to have my money in versus say a compareable stock that only would be a ''double'' to its April/May price levels. As an example FGII compared to HLX; HLX is only a ''double'' if it returns to its May price levels, but FGII is a 4 bagger - nod goes to FGII; not for just this reason alone-but, I heavilly weight the upside return potential as a factor. Just my opinions....hopefully this will stimulate some positive discussion on actually BUYING SOME DAMN OIL STOCKS HERE !!!