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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: poodle who wrote (13542)	9/7/1998 8:50:00 PM
From: Yamakita	Respond to of 18691

1) "Why the talk about gambling" Because he asked why the Japanese don't dump their postal accounts and put the money into treasuries. Perception of the stock market as a casino is a big part of the answer.It's extremely relevant 2) "Exchange rates can go up as well as down." Yes, exchange rates can go either way. I thought I was being pretty clear, but here is is again: Most Japanese are afraid that the yen will appreciate, hence sending the value of their dollar-based investment downward. Few are afraid that it will significantly depreciate, say to 200 or something. It is a legitimate fear: Japan's soaring trade surpluses could easily push the yen back to 100 and lower. That would represent nearly a 50% loss from the rate of a few weeks ago. Takes a lot of years to make up a 50% of loss when you've got Treasuries that pay 5.5%. Look, I'm not saying that's going to happen. I'm telling you that this is what is going through the minds of many Japanese, and that those are the main reasons why most Japanese don't pull out their savings and start buying T-bills. And I'm not hoping to change the entire society; only the 200,000 or so that (I hope) will buy the book!