Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Biotech / Medical : PFE (Pfizer) How high will it go? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BigKNY3 who wrote (5411)	9/7/1998 9:35:00 PM
From: BigKNY3	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9523

The Peabody Report: September 7, 1998 The Peabody Report is intended to foster conversation on the PFEr Board. Comments are welcome and encouraged. Invest only after conducting your own research. Have PFun! BigKNY3 __________________________________________________________ Peabody Peak/Valley Status Peabody Peaks and Valleys since 1/90 (Updated 9/07/98) www3.techstocks.com Chart of Peabody Peaks and Valleys with Moving Averages dailystocks.net Useful PFEr Links -3 year PFE chart versus the Dow growth. control.bigcharts.com -6 Month PFE Chart with Da Bollinger Bands Playing 207.95.154.130 -5 Year PFE Price Chart news.com -Peabody PFE Price History (1987-1993) (Updated: 9/03/98) www3.techstocks.com The Market Environment -Briefing.com- Reviews current market environment briefing.com -World Markets quote.yahoo.com Peabody Model Trend Prediction Based on historical PFE patterns, the Peabody Model predicts the following trend direction: PFE was swept up in the volatile Russian Bear market last week reaching a Valley, a Peak and a pending Valley. The last pending Valley was reached last Friday @ 93.50. Da Model predicts PFE will follow the market back up to a Peak above 100 by September 20, 1998. However, market volatility could easily bring PFE back to 90 during September. Commentary This is the first time a triple Valley/Peak was ever recorded during a 5 day period....indicative that this correction/bearish market is something not seen since 1990. The correlation between the general market and PFE is clear....the Dow is 18.2% off its high while PFE is 21.7% off its 1998 high. PFE has also shown a quarterly increase for the last 4 1/4 years. To keep the streak going PFE must increase 14% over last Friday's close. Since it is based primarily on historical trends and Mr. Peabody "gut-feels", the Peabody Model should always be placed in context of the market environments and anticipated news. As evidenced by the mythical Peabody Portfolio (see section below), the Peabody Model works particularly well for PFE investors with a "buy, hold, and buy more at the Valley" investing strategy. New or pfuture PFErs could consider investing 50% immediately and investing the remainder at near Peabody Valleys. ......................................PFE.........................% Chg from...............# Days .....................................Date.........Price.......Last Price (9/04/98)......From Today Last Peabody Valley: .. 9/04/98 ......93.50.......... -2.0% .....................-3 Last Peabody Peak:..... 9/03/98......102.06..........+7.0% ...................-4 Pending Forecasted Next Peak....9/21/98.....110.79..........+16.2%................ 14 Potential Valley Strike Price..............100.98.........+5.9 % Forecasted Next Valley................... 90.32............-5.3%.................. (If Model is Wrong) ______________________________________________ Peabody Short-term PForecasts Peabody Short-Term PForecast (8/28/98): PFE: 101.63, DJ: 8,052: Last week showed how PFE is effected by a correcting market. Despite great news on the Celebra expedited review and the EU approval of Viagra, PFE was caught in the correcting general market (-13.8% off its high) and uneasiness about Viagra's specification and perceived safety. Da Gut Feel: PFE will once again break support at the 100 level before making a mad dash to end the third quarter. Watch for a great buying opportunity!!! Evaluation of Peabody PForecast: Valley was predicted and a great buying opportunity surface @ 92-93. A battered thumbs up. Peabody PForecast Record (77 weeks): 49-28 (64%) _________________________________________________________ Peabody Short-Term PForecast (9/07/98): PFE: 95.38, DJ: 7,640: Doom and gloom is all over the Street indicating a reversal is near. Despite the Morgan report concerning Viagra, the specification level has not significantly changed in the last 7 weeks. Da Gut Feel: PFE will follow the general market multiplied by 1.04. Expect a major rally on Tuesday followed by ?. PFE will hit 100 sometime during the week. Watch again for any PFE buying opportunities! Peabody Portfolio Total return:........................................+48.3% PFE @ 95.38 Annualized return:...............................+49.7% % of Peabody purchases in the black... 54% (13 out of 24) The Peabody Portfolio consists of 24 PFE purchase recommendations listed on the PFEr Board since August 14, 1996. To date, the Portfolio has purchased 4,000 PFE shares at an average price of $64.33 (only 2.9% off the subsequent next PFE Valleys). ________________________________________ # PFE Shares Purchased:.......... 4,000 Average Price of Purchases:....... $64.33 Total Costs: ...............................$257,313 Total Market Value:.....................$381,500 Total Potential Profit:...................$124,188 Date............#..........Purchase Purchased...Shares...Price 8/14/96:..... 200 ........$36.38 10/25/96:....200 .........$40.44 12/4/96:......200..........$41.69 12/12/96:.....200.........$40.50 12/16/96:.....200.........$40.44 12/31/96:....200..........$41.50 1/2/97:........200.........$40.94 1/28/97: ......200..........$42.38 2/28/97:.......200...........$45.69 3/24/97:.......200...........$44.88 3/27/97:.......200...........$42.81 3/31/97:........200..........$42.56 8/8/97:..........200..........$55.13 4/16/98:........200...........$97.00 4/27/98:........200...........$113.00 5/7/98:..........200...........$107.50 5/15/98:.........100..........$105.00 5/27/98 :........100 .........$101.75 7/06/98 :........100 .........$106.00 7/29/98 :........100 .........$110.50 8/05/98 :........100 .........$104.00 8/07/98 :........100 .........$102.63 8/11/98..........100..........$100.00 9/01/98..........100..........$97.63 Total:............4,000.........$64.33 ____________________________________________ Suggested PFE Buying Levels The following suggested PFE buying levels are based on The Peabody Model. The aggressive buying price level is used in adding shares to The Peabody Portfolio. However, depending upon market conditions an immediate purchase could be made at any time: :..................$90 to $93................................. ________________________________________ PFuture Actions That Will Effect PFE Trends Viagra Rx trends:..................................... Every Monday throughout 1998 News of Viagra adverse reactions and drug interactions: ...................................Throughout 1998 Major analyst's Upgrades/Downgrades............Throughout 1998 FDA Response to Public Citizen Letter...........September 1998 Final European approval of Viagra:.................September 15, 1998 Federal Reserve Interest Rate Meeting...........September 29, 1998 bloomberg.com Initial reports of Viagra international sales.......September-October, 1998 Third Quarter Earnings.....................................October 14, 1998 PFE R&D Meeting........................................October 29, 1998 ACC/AHA Report on Viagra...........................December1998 FDA Approval of Celebra...............................February 24, 1999 ED news in the media: ................................Throughout 1998 Japanese approval of Viagra .........................First half, 1999 _______________________________________________ Peabody V-Files Viagra sales for the second quarter, 1998 were $411 million, the highest recorded sales for a new pharmaceutical product during its first three months on the market. Analysts estimate that Viagra will have 1998 sales of $0.946 billion, a 30.5% increase over earlier estimates. ............................................1998 Est...1998 Est ...........................................(Billions)....(Billions)..... Comments NationsBanc........................$1.100.......$0.759...... $.205B (international) Credit Suisse First Boston.....$1.100.........................$1.7B (1999) Morgan Stanley....................$1.010..........................$4.8B (2004) Alex Brown .........................$1.000.......$0.750..... $1.2B (1999) Deutsche Bank ....................$1.000 ......$0.750..... $1.75B (1999) Gerard Klauer........................$1.000......$0.300.... $2.9B (2000) Gruntal ................................$1.000......$1.000.... $8 B peak (2005) Alex Brown............................$1,000........................$1.2B (1999) Cowen...................................$0.850........................$5B+ (2002) Morgan Stanley......................$0.836.........$1.010........$1.7B (2000) Furman Seltz.........................$0.811........................Only $100M in 3rd Qt Bear Stearns..........................$0.800......$0.600 ......$200M in 3rd Qt Merrill Lynch...........................$0.750 .....$0625...... Consensus...........................$0.946.......$0.724 ____________ PFE Stock Splits PFE has split three times in the last ten years ( 2/91, 6/95, and 6/97). The Wayback Machine indicates that PFE usually announces a 2-1 split if PFE trade above 80 for 90 consecutive days. In the January, 1998 survey of 22 PFErs, only 43% felt that PFE will split in 1998. At the PFE Annual Meeting on April 23, 1998, the PFE CEO stated they will consider requesting additional authorized shares from shareholders later this year. Bottom line, a 3-1 PFE split announcement will be made in late 1998 or early 1999. A request for additional authorized shares was apparently not made by the Board on July 23, 1998.