To: Patrick E.McDaniel who wrote (64038 ) 9/7/1998 10:02:00 PM From: Jorge Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 176387
Patrick....Yes, no doubt tomorrow, but after that there's so much going on everywhere in the world I don't know what's in store...It almost seems like a crap-shoot out there....overvaluation, lack of consumer confidence, lowered earnings expectations in corporate America, deflation, Japan, China, Russia, Brazil, Venezuela, speculations of lowered Christmas sales this year,investor psychology, blah, blah, blah, and double blah.....Maybe I'm focused too much on the negative because that's about all I'm seeing.... I'm just hoping this rally we'll have tomorrow, and one we WILL HAVE, doesn't turn out to be the "Disbelief Rally" phase of a Bear Market, the one that is investor-invented on refusing to believe we could be in a Bear Market...In this denial phase investors frantically run up the Indexes in an exhaustion run that turns on them when the fundamentals come back to face them and the truth is not as positive as they would have liked to believe..Once that happens, based on fundamental evaluations like earnings, the interest rate cut that DIDN'T happen, slowdown in GDP and other "growth" measurements that are already showing slowdown and if we ever get to Zero growth in the economy the evidence will DEMAND a reduction in P/E ratios. I am long and have been for a long time and I wouldn't dream of going short on anything, too easy to get burned...but all this sudden turn of positive attitude (rate cut?) doesn't seem fundamental enough to turn this Bear around at this time. Anybody feel like pointing out my shortsightedness here..I'm looking for a balance to all the negative news, commentary I've been hearing/reading lately? Regards, George