To: Doughboy who wrote (4113 ) 9/8/1998 6:49:00 AM From: Zoltan! Respond to of 13994
September 8, 1998 High Job Approval? The Truth May Be Polls Apart By JOHN H. FUND President Clinton has been both blessed and cursed by polls during the Lewinsky scandal. His supporters have brandished his 60%-plus job approval ratings as they insisted the scandal is unimportant and it's time to move on. But his private polls taken back in January helped convince Mr. Clinton he dare not admit the truth about Monica Lewinsky--something most of his allies now devoutly wish he'd done. And the same president who has been sustained by polls while the facts were in doubt may now be hammered by them as the whole story emerges. After seven months of repeating a mantra about the president's job approval ratings, networks have now suddenly taken to reporting a second set of numbers: his tumbling personal approval and credibility ratings. "He may have been propped up by this daily avalanche of favorable job approval numbers," says Everett Carll Ladd, president of the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research. "But there was always a richer vein of data showing a weaker position." Job approval ratings traditionally reflect how people feel about the country: If there is peace and prosperity, the president's performance can't be faulted that much. When Public Opinion magazine in 1979 created a "Gross National Spirit" index to measure the country's mood, it picked presidential approval as a key indicator. The new Pew Research poll shows the president still has a healthy 62% job approval, but it also reflects a complete mirror image: 62% don't like Mr. Clinton as a person. The Pew poll also found that--for all the complaints about scandal fatigue--the president's Aug. 17 televised admission prompted 72% of Americans to say they were following the scandal very or somewhat closely, up from only 56% the week before. This added attention has been devastating to his image. Fully 70% of Americans think his relationship with Ms. Lewinsky was "very wrong," and the same number think he admitted it only because of the massive evidence gathered against him. At a time of international crisis, 43% believe he lacks needed respect from world leaders. Other polls indicate that Kenneth Starr's report could further erode the credibility a leader must have--even in good times. A Rasmussen Research poll found 63% want Congress to act if Mr. Starr reports evidence of obstruction of justice, and that the president's numbers would erode dramatically should the stock market continue to fall. "Voters have come face to face with a presidential lie and are therefore considering their opinion of presidential perjury," Democratic pollster Alan Secrest told the Washington Times. John Zogby, the pollster who came closest to predicting the 1996 election, now says Mr. Clinton is in "unprecedented hot water." Mr. Zogby and Mr. Ladd agree that when Mr. Clinton's misdeeds were hypothetical, it was easier to give the "sophisticated" answer that it's all private. Now that some are beyond dispute, Mr. Zogby's polls show the president's favorable ratings at 51% in Illinois and 47% in Missouri. His "very unfavorable rating is now 39% in Missouri. Mr. Clinton may take solace in the fact that nearly three-fourths of those polled by the Los Angeles Times said "the investigation has gone on too long." But a majority of Americans felt the same way about the Watergate and Iran-contra investigations, too. And Mr. Starr has seen his basement poll numbers finally reach the ground floor: The Times poll found 41% now approve of his job performance. Watergate provides a useful lesson in how slowly Americans come to terms with a president's flaws. Mr. Clinton's admission of untruthfulness may be seen by historians as a turning point comparable to Richard Nixon's firing of special prosecutor Archibald Cox in October 1973. Before Nixon's Saturday night massacre, most people couldn't imagine him leaving office. After it, elite political and media opinion turned against Nixon dramatically, and the impeachment process went into forward gear. It ended up shaping overall public opinion rather than following it. "What the president has to worry about is the cumulative effect of elite opinion," says Keating Holland, polling director for CNN. "The public may consider the notion of resignation after they hear it 20, 30 or 40 times." Nixon had one big disadvantage relative to Mr. Clinton: Watergate coincided with the tanking of the economy. Nixon was beset by gas lines, 12% inflation and a deep recession. His job approval ratings closely tracked measures of economic dissatisfaction. Only 25% of Americans thought the economy was doing well in the spring of 1974, when the president's job approval was 29%. Today, 55% in the Pew poll say they are satisfied with the way the country is going. Even so, the similarities between Nixon and Mr. Clinton are striking. Both were dogged from their early days in politics by a reputation for evasive and too-clever-by-half behavior. Nixon was called "Tricky Dick"; columnist Paul Greenberg tagged Mr. Clinton "Slick Willie" way back in 1980. But once they became president, the respect people had for the office gave them an enormous benefit of the doubt. Two months before Nixon resigned, 40% in a Harris poll still saw him as a man of integrity and 42% called Watergate "just politics." Today, a similar 42% of people in the Pew poll think the Lewinsky scandal has been caused by Mr. Clinton's enemies. Of course, there are many differences between the Clinton scandals and Watergate. One of the most dramatic is how much more polls dominate the scandal news and shape the reaction of political leaders. "We've become captive to polls and focus groups," says Rep. Paul McHale (D., Pa.), the first congressman of his party to call for Mr. Clinton to resign. "But representatives must sometimes act like leaders and just do the right thing. People will follow bold action if it gives shape to ideas they've already held in vague form."interactive.wsj.com