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To: Edward Boghosian who wrote (17658)	9/8/1998 9:42:00 AM
From: Andrew Danielson	Respond to of 213177

<<In the long run? How many years are you thinking of. Remember, we've been in a 20 year bull market. When the market dives, which it most definitely will, it will be a number of years before it comes out of it.>> Edward, Many people, including you apparently, believe that the current bull market must eventually be "paid for" by years of horrible or negative returns (a big bear market). This is simply not true. From 1801-1997, the average REAL rate of return for US stocks has been 7.0 % (accounting for inflation). This figure has been remarkably consistent. From 1982-1997, the average REAL return has been 12.8%. Wow, you say, that's totally out of whack and totally unsustainable. Unsustainable, yes. Out of whack, no. What I didn't tell you was that the real return from the previous 15 years, 1966-1981, was -.4%. Yes, NEGATIVE over a period of 15 years. You see, this current great bull market is in fact simply correcting the undervalued nature of stocks going into it. The last 30 years of returns, including this "unsustainable" bull market, is a BELOW average 6.2% (REAL rate). Nobody expects endless years of 20,30% returns. To expect that to end, however, does not mean that one expects a horrific bear market to take over instead. Moderation is the key, my friend. Andrew