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To: Richard Habib who wrote (17660)	9/8/1998 1:02:00 AM
From: Slugger	Respond to of 213176

Rich, I agree with your assessment of current market conditions. I think we have further to go on the downside, but I think this week is looking very good based on what I saw in individual stocks on Friday and what is happening in Asian markets the last two days; however, my opinion may change as I watch the markets unfold this week. <<we are approaching the time for Starr's report which will IMO lead us into impeachment procedures that will be viewed very negatively in the current global environment>> This is the event that I think will complete this bear run. The US market is not a "safe haven" for foreign investors or any investor until this is resolved.

To: Richard Habib who wrote (17660)	9/8/1998 8:17:00 AM
From: Phillip C. Lee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213176

Richard, I have reasons to be optimistic. In domestic economic conditions, everything looks excellent, interest/unemployment rates, inflation rate, federal budget surplus, GDP sustantial increase, leading technologies in high tech, S&P 500 PE of around 25, not high, companies growth in acceptable rates. AAPL is under 20 of PE ratio for '99 expected earnings, even around 20 in '98 earnings. You have to look at things surrounding you. Don't scare yourself and others. I don't mind you play in the stocks short term (qualified as day traders) but you may get burned severely some days. Go ahead to short AAPL, we'll see how you get in a couple of months ahead. Phil

To: Richard Habib who wrote (17660)	9/8/1998 8:48:00 AM
From: soup	Respond to of 213176

>If you read the full text of Greenspan's speech you would find it not nearly as positive as the media impressions.< You don't cut interest rates if everything's hunky dory. >Secondly, the meeting between the Japanese, Rubin and Greenspan apparently did not go particularly well.< I listened to a foreign journalist discuss the mood of the Japanese people as pretty fed up with the loss of prestige and shame that the US was advising them on their financial state. The opposition parties are urging drastic reform of the banking system. My best case scenario is that Japan, Inc. gets good and mad -- buying up shares of domestic stock and even nationalizing its banking system. If that happens, they'll take Asia up with them. Big time. >Thirdly, it appears Russia is heading for political chaos this week.< Known and priced into the market. [IMO, all the elements exist for a positive compromise but I agree, that under the best circumstances, it's a multi-year fix.] >Fourth, we are approaching the time for Starr's report which will IMO lead us into impeachment procedure.< Pressure should be on Republican leadership not to let this turn into an event that will roil the markets. >Fifth, even at the levels we are now at, stocks remain historically overvalued ... < Depends on which segment of the market you look at. Dow and S&P 500, yeah (though you always have to adjust for interest rates), but after 1990/1991, the S&P 500 went nowhere for 1992-1994 while small caps kicked butt. I cribbed the following portfolio characteristics from the Numeric Investors MicroCap (Russell 2000 benchmark) web page and adjusted them for their NAV drop since 6/30: Fund Characteristics as of 6/30 [9/4 adjusted] NAV: $17.24 [13.10] Number of Holdings: 182 [?] Median Mkt. Cap: $356m [271m] Dividend Yield: 0.2% [.26%] Price to Book: 3.1x [2.4x] Price to Earnings: 20.0x [15.2x] EPS Growth Rate: 24.9% [?] numeric.com Ie; this portfolio is trading at a 39% (!) discount to its projected growth rate. IMO, US small cap growth companies are the ones most insulated from foreign retraction and the ones most likely to benefit from an interest rate reduction. I think AAPL will be among the best earnings stories over the 15 months, and will be accordingly rewarded. ---------------------------------------------- PS> Ian and Alomex. I judge your current sparring to be a draw and invite you both to take your off-topic discussion of off-line. Don't be a bunch of Yahoo!s.