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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam Scrutchins who wrote (17662)	9/11/1998 10:23:00 PM
From: Edward Boghosian	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 213177

Andrew: I have not avoided responding to you for I have just gotten back to my computer, this PM. When I wrote my comments, I was not considering rates of return, real or uncorrected. Therefore, how could I say 12.8% is out of whack? If something is unsustainable like the 12.8%, as you also agree, how could it not be out of whack? If you agree, 12.8% is unsustainable, you most certainly must agree that 20%-30$ is not only unsustainable but also out of whack. I ask you the following question: if the real rate of return during 1982-1997 is 12.8%, how low must the Dow Jones fall to reach this number? Do you think this drop is going to be gentle? You state in one sentence, the rate of return for the last 30 years is below the 6.2% but in your last sentence you admit the 20%-30% return is not endless. You like many others believe in a kinder, gentler stock market where it will let you down softly or perhaps not at all. Perhaps you expect 100 points down today but 250 points up tomorrow, etc. etc. My friend you will be sadly disappointed. I first started playing around in 1965. We were in a bull market around end of the 60s when the DJ hit about 1000. Certain stocks were moving 6-10 points until it dropped to about 600-anywhere from a 40%-50% drop. Todays Wall Street has an article about the drop on C1. From the early 70s to the beginning of the present bull market which was about 1980-1983, the DJ remained in a range of 800-1000 for a period of almost 10 years. That's right, 10 years in this narrow range. I remember, stock funds were popular before but turned into dead meat during the 10 year period. I could go on and on and on but I won't. About 3 months ago I moved monies from stocks to money market. What I have now in stocks are down about 12% and I expect much better pickings later. I still like Apple and depending how kind the market is to us, I see it going much higher in 99. This is my thinking. Good luck and don't be suckered in by a lot of rhetoric(B.S.) by analyst who don't know from their_____ to their _____.

To: Sam Scrutchins who wrote (17662)	9/11/1998 11:53:00 PM
From: Edward Boghosian	Respond to of 213177

Sam: My comment dealt with the overall market and not Apple. The purpose of the news is to sustain a bull market that already shows many signs of falling apart. People don't want to believe it because they've been fed for such a long time with the notion that people are socking away billions into funds and there has to be demand with the market, subsequently, going up, up and up with very occasional, minor corrections. Well, I believe, the market is a beast unto itself. It has the ability to blindside everyone, including the "experts". All of a sudden bad economical and/or political news arises from sources we would never expect and there you have it. Suddenly our idyllic market starts realizing everything is not like fantasy land. Then more bad news and people start getting nervous and start to wonder. Then the Far East falls apart. But how could it? All these funds were touting about the future of the emerging markets. Soros was dumping money into Russia. How could he go wrong? Let me tell you about Soros. The only thing that will save his Russian investments is if IMF bails out Russia and his investments improve if the economic conditions in Russia improve. Where are all the funds that invested in Russia? Did you expect what happened in Russia, Japan, South America? Of course, we were told it would not affect us. Do you expect the communists to come back to power in Russia? I do!!! What affect do you think that would have on the market? Suppose Clinton resigns within the next few weeks. Do you expect it? It's very possible. Many things out of the blue that no one ever expected suddenly become reality and affect the market. Well, I think the market is in a very precarious and spastic position and will turn down on the slightest pretext blindsiding all of us including the experts. Remember the Hunt brothers. History may be repeating itself with the silver futures. But how dare I even think the silver market would beat Warren. It may beat Warren the same way it beat the Hunts.