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To: Robert G. Harrell who wrote (1672)	9/8/1998 10:04:00 AM
From: Silicon Trader	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17683

I love that guy

To: Robert G. Harrell who wrote (1672)	9/8/1998 12:19:00 PM
From: Toby Zidle	Respond to of 17683

What Jerry Favors does ... uses terms like "most of the time" and "probably" and "but..." when he makes his predictions ... is what any smart prophet will do if he wants longevity. Otherwise, an absolutist with a wrong outlook will go the way of Joe (Bear) Granville or the more recent Carleton Lutz. What troubles me about non-absolute positions is the way many (not necessarily Favors) will use the trap-door escape they give themselves when they've wrong, but take the broadest possible credit when they're in the neighborhood of being right. Many predictors have said they got their subscribers out of the market before Black Monday of October, 1987, when the fact is they were bearish 30-50% below the market highs and a year too early. Personally, I prefer the non-evangelical absolutist who has the courage to say 'I was wrong', when he blows a call. For all the bad press Ralph Acompura of Prudential got on this board at the time he changed his mind on Dow 10000, he seems to have made a pretty gutsy call that was right on. Now I'm waiting for him to call a bottom. And so now....where's Elaine Garzarelli? The point of all this is that no one (not even Favors) is going to be right all the time. We'll always hear conflicting opinions. We have to make up our minds for ourselves. And, most importantly, have a Plan 'B' ready for when we see that our Plan 'A' strategists have failed.