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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bosco who wrote (6252)	9/8/1998 10:16:00 AM
From: Lee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Bosco, Thread, I just read through the past 100+ posts in haste. I remember one of them said that the US consumer was in denial about the "coming implosion." Probably a good thing, that way we will keep spending. If all US consumers were as down as this thread we would have that global depression I keep reading about here. Instead let us see... a) We added 300,000+ jobs b) Income grew at its fastest pace in a few years c) Inflation is low d) Interest rates are going lower e) The high techs keep finding ways to improve business The strategist at the multinationals I talk too all are figuring out ways to use the Asian situation to their advantage. They all admit it hurts but in the end they will profit. The stock market may be weak at the moment, but the US economy has a bit more life to it. Damn the market, we will have a good holiday season. I can not seem to get the ski vacation I want, it's all booked. They say it looks like a very strong year. Regards, Lee

To: Bosco who wrote (6252)	9/8/1998 1:00:00 PM
From: Paul Berliner	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 9980

Bosco, thread: It's the smart money that's using today's rally as an opportunity to sell into the idiots' buying frenzy - that's why the market's been moving no better than sideways since 10am. We all know this is total bull sh-- and that there's no reason for the rally. A 1/4% rate cut won't appease hungry, mutineering russians, nor will it hide the pending financial rectal exam results on the Japanese banks due out any day, nor will it roll over Brazil's $8B of ST debt due late Oct., which will have to be rolled over at crippling rates as they emerg. mkt. risk premium has skyrocketed since russia devalued, nor will it halt pressure on the Real (which is now HUGE since Columbia devalued, as Brazil is the 2nd largest coffee exporter - yet another nightmare for Cardoso to ponder). Oh, and a rate cut won't save a certain president from impeachment as even his own party has turned their backs on 'em. This is how I figure the math would be: Yeltsin coup = Dow -700 JPN Banks all deemed insolvent by Intl. Acct. Standards = Dow -400 Brazil devalues or Mex. Peso weakens another 10% = Dow -500 Clinto resigns/impeached/indicted after Starr report issd. = Dow -700 All in all its roughly another 2,000 points lower, and I anticipate each event on the list having a >50% chance of occuring. So all today does is establish another excellent level to get short, much like with the yen. I couldn't believe S&P futures were up over 20 points last night into today. Who are these people? Everyone will pull there $ out of mutual funds when they are approaching the break even level - and after the above events take hold, that'll mean everyone who'd jumped onboard the last 2 years. Even if the above events don't occur, the economy will fall on its face over the coming months. Why? Mr. & Mrs. John Doe have watched their 401K go from $100,000 to less than $80,000 over the past 2 months. Thus, they will either skip that dream vacation they've been planning or forego the purchase of that new car they've been eyeing. And there are a lot of Mr. & Mrs. Doe's out there. The simple equation is as follows: for every dollar of unrealized cap gains Mr. & Mrs. Doe have given back, they will curb spending by an equal amount. I see a recession in its embryonic stage....