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To: Kory who wrote (6647)9/8/1998 3:54:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 8002
 
kory, are you saying volume on the exchanges is anywhere near 1990 levels? no way! not even close.

volume x price = total dollars and price is up by a factor of nearly 3. so volume must be down by a factor of 1/3 or else more money is coming in the market. 1 to 1 volumne is absurd. 1 to 1/3 volume is plain luny. much, much more money is flowing in the market near the tops than near the 3000 level.

i don't know how much but a reasonable bottom is at leat 200% more given that volume has stayed the same (it hasn't, it has grown).

dow 3000 to 3500 would probably be bad for the economy. we'd probably have a steep recession and stock option programs would be as popular as seaweed ;-)

i don't think it'll happen. but it could. i think dow 6000 and some small change is very possible. 30 pes with small growth aren't sustainable in this environment. 24 pes with no growth are even less sustainable.

btw, i think dow 6100 + or - a little would be a GOOD thing, why? purge the excesses out of the market. productive money is flowing into every nonproductive gimmick you can imagine. it should flow to productive resources.