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To: scotty who wrote (18101)	9/9/1998 5:59:00 AM
From: E. Charters	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116893

be aware that december is usually the lowest. I believe 95, and 96 were out of character here without checking. The trouble with classical techniques with 17 year runs is that no past predicts any future unless you blur the image to the point where it is no longer useful for short or medium term advantage. Tech analysis is good for one thing. Picking out sudden activity in a large market. Obviously an overall tech analysis of the VSE would spot some obvious trends in stocks that you could not otherwise see. The computer can be your eyes and ears on the rail of many thousands of stocks. But graphical analysis of anything but a predictable cycle of accumulation in early stages of promotion is doomed. Mature markets with many countervailing variables defy accurate prediction. No number or outside or inside influences can tell anyone where the market will go. In other words if a war breaks out in Europe the market will not react in any predictable way. Nor will anybody be able to predict where the DOW will be by December. It could be 9,000 it could be 6,000. I think it should be at 6,000 but I fear the lemmings might display that irrational exuberance and drive it up. One thing is for sure, the bubble WILL burst. Whether it is 3 months or 3 years from now is anybody's guess. In December the US may decide that due to a technological breakthrough they will install fibre optic cable in every home and expand the backbone to 100 terabyte per second average speed and mandate a top price to home T1's. Net stocks will have to trade on a special exchange. IBM will then announce a new diamond-copper CPU with 100 million transistors that has a 300 GHz clock speed that will fit on the head of a pin and can be made with zero defect rate bringing its costs down to about 100 dollars. They will port Linux to it and my software company will go to 10,000 dollars a share. After that the new millimeter thick 10 million pixel one watt displays with 124 million colours and 200 hz refresh rate will come out and off goes the tech revolution again chasing a cure for cancer like a mad chihuahua. Who can tell? I just wish they would make a whisper quiet computer that had an error free keyboard. mailto:echarter@vianet.on.ca ==========================================================