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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim S who wrote (7791)	9/8/1998 4:22:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

jim, i'm no guru, that is for sure. my record is one of being correct the vast majority of the time (as bob recently found out ;-). however, there is one caveat. one could go broke with all my right calls as i'm usually very far ahead of da bulls. that happens in manic mania markets, or so i've learned. there will be no rate cut. the japanese finance minister, who spent lots of time with mr g in san francisco, said he had no such leanings. oh, that's what greenspan said, too. but, the bulls never let reality get in the way of their ideas ;-) that is why they are hard to anticipate - way too irrational. here is what i know: 1. the large liquid companies are overvalued - even still, by any historical method of valuation (like tulips back in the day - hint, hint, hint ;-) 2. growth opportunities in the world are getting smaller and smaller. demand is slowing. 3. our trade deficit is getting larger and larger as foreign products are cheaper and cheaper. 4. this market is based on excess money. shut down the printing presses and, pooooof, da bull was all hot air. 5. china, hong kong and latin america are ver likely to devalue as their economies come under pressure (this exacerbates 2 and 3 even more). 6. we have a banking crisis on our hands. if you've learned one thing, it is that govt will intervene to inflict the maximum pain on everyone ;-) what i don't know is when da bulls in da large cap area put this two piece puzzle together. it may take a while. i'm serious. today's rally seemed a little on the weak side. lower volumes than i'd expect. nice pop, though. let's see how this bout of greater fool plays out. since so many people are big mo mo types they may run up the market for no other reason than someone bought yesterday ;-) btw, there is an article in barron's that showed when the dow hit 7500 or so that joe avg lost 43% of his/her profits since 1990.