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To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (18121)	9/8/1998 4:20:00 PM
From: Eashoa' M'sheekha	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116786

R.S.V.P.--------To All. Anyone know where I can find a long term(ie:20 yr.) chart for inflation figures in the Excited States?<g>I would like to do a direct correlation between this singular statistic and the POG.The mainstream detractors tend to lean towards citing this particular scenario as the ONLY reason for price fluctuations and the only one they appear comfortable in addressing.Anyone? Thanks In Advance.

To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (18121)	9/8/1998 5:39:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116786

Indians sink savings into gold as economy suffers 08:22 a.m. Sep 08, 1998 Eastern By Sabyasachi Mitra BOMBAY, Sept 8 (Reuters) - Economic uncertainty is driving Indians to their old love -- gold -- but the romance is damaging the nation's sputtering economy, analysts said on Tuesday. The trade deficit has widened, draining currency reserves, and stashing funds in an unproductive asset is hindering investment in an economy desperate to regain momentum, they said. Data for the first two months of 1998/99 (April/March) show that gold and silver imports soared to $1.11 billion from $139 million in the same period a year earlier. ''This sharp increase in gold and silver imports at a time when gold prices are falling internationally, shows the desperation of Indian households to protect their assets from continuous erosion,'' Anindya Chatterjee, head of markets research at ANZ Investment bank, said in a report. World Gold Council (WGC) data shows that from January to July, India imported 384 tonnes of gold via official channels, up from from 273 tonnes in the same period a year earlier. The jump in gold imports has pushed up overall imports and widened the trade deficit, analysts said. Rajan Govil, economist at HSBC Securities, said non-petroleum, oil and lubricant imports, excluding gold, between October 1997 and May 1998 grew by 5.5 percent on a year earlier. But including gold, the rise was around 14 percent, he said. ''Definitely gold is a major culprit,'' Govil said. The trade deficit in April-July rose to $3.3 billion from $1.8 billion a year earlier. ''Widening of the trade deficit in financial year 1998/99 is largely explained by the increase in gold imports, which is equivalent to a flight of capital,'' Chatterjee said. Analysts said a widening trade deficit would undermine the rupee, which has already lost over six percent of its value against the dollar in the wake of India's nuclear tests in May. India's demand for gold jumped by 33 percent to 458.2 tonnes in the first two quarters of calendar 1997, the WGC said in its latest report. Gold prices on the Bombay Bullion Exchange stood at 4,200 rupees ($98.84) per 10 grammes on Monday, marginally firmer than the 4,170 rupees it fetched six months ago. International prices have fallen from around $309 an ounce to around $288 over the same period. The WGC said low prices and liberalised imports continued to underpin demand. The Indian government last October liberalised bullion import rules, authorising eight banks to import and sell gold in the domestic market in addition to the three state-run agencies. It has since added more banks and agencies to the list. But a head of commodity trading at a foreign bank said the spurt in gold imports was triggered by precautionary buying in May on anticipation of an increase in import tariffs. India raised import duties on gold to 250 rupees per 10 grams from 220 rupees in its 1998/99 budget, announced in June. But the duty hike has not taken the shine off gold for Indians. Analysts said a sharp fall in exports, stagnant investment, political instability and a fragile rupee had harmed confidence, driving investors back to traditional safe havens. ANZ's Chatterjee said households were shifting their savings from shares and debentures to bank deposits and gold. The Reserve Bank of India's annual report released on Friday showed the household sector's investment in shares and debentures as a percentage of gross financial assets fell to 1.8 percent in 1997/98 from 7.3 percent in 1995/96. Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited.

To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (18121)	9/8/1998 5:40:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Respond to of 116786

RESEARCH ALERT-India faces near zero export growth BOMBAY, Sept 8 (Reuters) - India will see flat export growth during 1998/99 (April-March) because of a slowing global economy and the country's trade deficit will rise sharply, international investment firm Merrill Lynch said. "Exports have shown a negative growth rate for April-July...and we expect export growth for FY99 (financial year ending March 31) to be close to zero percent," it said. The report was written by economist Kamal Sen on September 3 and made available to Reuters on Tuesday. 08:42 09-08-98 India's trade deficit soared by 70 percent in the first quarter of 1998/99 compared to a year ago, it said. "With higher oil prices expected after September we forecast the trade deficit for FY99 to be around $11 billion compared with $6.8 billion in FY98," the report said. An economic slowdown in Western Europe and the United States, which together account for 50 percent of India's exports and 90 percent of foreign direct investment, could worsen the trade imbalance, it said. Foreign direct investment and portfolio inflows would slow this financial year, but a recent overseas bond issue which raised $4.16 billion would bridge the shortfall, it said. "This would imply that reserves may still be at around $20 billion from the current level of $24 billion which is not a serious deterioration," it said. Sen said the widening trade deficit and the global scenario would put pressure on the rupee. "We expect the rupee be near 46 per dollar by end of this fiscal year," he said. The rupee ended on Tuesday at 42.56/57 per dollar slightly weaker from its previous close of 42.545/56. Higher inflation would push up nominal interest rates. A weakening rupee and possible monetary tightening by the central bank would also be taken into account by lenders and borrowers, the report said. "Both these factors should result in creating higher interest rates by the year end," it added. 09:28 09-08-98 Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited.