To: Charles Hughes who wrote (11845 ) 9/9/1998 8:37:00 AM From: RDH Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 14631
Charles and all, I do not see where the pattern of Informix yesterday was that much different than so many other tech stocks yesterday. It opened up higher, stayed around that price until another rise in the afternoon. Although, it outperformed the market, yesterday, it is currently somewhat in synch with the general market. Now of course it will diverge from this as we approach earnings date. In addition expect it to be slightly influenced by Oracle, as Oracle approaches its earnings announcement. Expect Oracle to struggle to get back up to at least 25 regardless of the rest of the market (unless we see a significant market decline -- below 7300 -- which is possible with what is happening in South America and Washington DC). Realize too, that Informix value lies in its future, which even the most bullish of us have to admit is uncertain. If Informix Corp was liquidated today it would be in the red. If everything was sold, all employees terminated and Informix was completely dismantled there wouldn't be enough to pay off all debts (based on last quarter's data). However, as Informix begins to prove it can generate revenue without a lot of capital, it becomes very attractive to growth stock investors. Once it is make 15 to 20 cents a quarter, it will be clear how underpriced this stock is. At that point institutions will jump on and we will see it much higher than now. In addition, its past financial problems will be forgotten and Gartner will move its position in the famous Gartner quadrant, and analysts will recommend this stock with Buys and Strong Buys. Of course, that will be the time to seriously evaluate the price of the stock and determine if it has gotten to pricey. Hopefully we will be seeing around $20 a share when that time comes. For now we should all be prepared to live with the volatility and not expect any miracles short term. If they occur, great. But a long term focus is still in order, in my opinion. And although, I expect the best, I realize there is substantial risk involved. - RDH.