To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (16445 ) 9/8/1998 11:47:00 PM From: Rob S. Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 164684
I just don't see it for a couple of days - The mood of the country is a bit more tough skinned for the time being. Although that can change quickly and will likely be upset a bit by the continuing Clinton saga, the market looks poised for more rebound, IMO. The snapshot of foreign markets doesn't look at all bad: quote.yahoo.com ----- Some ramblings: The market is still highly schizoid - with the anals and fund managers falling all over their stupid fat asses chasing after the still over-valued blue chips while the small caps go largely under followed and valued, I think that will change over the coming months - more of a sector rotation and take down in the Darlings than a further widespread market correction. As profits of the multi-nationals fail to keep to previous expectations based on liquidity engorged foreign economies, it's now "time to pay the rent". Lower profits among the Darlings while the small caps shine will force Wall Street to pay attention. The market is bound to remain turbulent because restructuring of sector asset allocations is inevitable but won't come overnight. The problems with the collapsing liquidity bubble overseas are due to the irrationally huge and quick (in socio-economic terms) allocation of resources and top-end expansion while underlying economies have not had the time, or social restructuring needed to sustain them. If democratic principles and economic system are to continue to flourish, old-line autocratic dictums must give way to change and masses of people must be educated and brought up to participate. that doesn't happen in a few years and without resistance. I think the "cat is out of the bag" and that liberalization of trade and economic freedoms is a "natural force" that is unstoppable, short of catastrophe. In short - the problems and changes we are seeing are troublesome but are not "show-stoppers". Russia is perplexing but not that unexpected. The Russian mentality is difficult and is boxed in years of isolation and dependence on authoritarian rule. Is it to be expected that they can just flip a switch and become a free-market driven society in a few years? The internet will bring unusual and swift degrees of change to economic systems over the coming years. To begin with, it is a growing factor in corporate organization and efficiency and will have impacts on profitability. Further, it will cause a tendency to increase communication, cooperation, globalization, and commerce through free enterprise. And, I believe, it will cause a flattening of underlying social and corporate structures. This is happening more quickly and pervasively than any other technology that has come before it, but will still take several decades to work through. It is going to be a dicey, stock pickers and traders market but, as I've posted, I expect more upside for a while.