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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vitas who wrote (26996)	9/9/1998 7:20:00 AM
From: William H Huebl	Respond to of 94695

None of them are Fib numbers, Vitas. But Oct is a month worth considering even though Sept is supposed to be worse historically??? Bill

To: Vitas who wrote (26996)	9/9/1998 8:04:00 AM
From: Vitas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Correction: those are trading days, not calendar days. -e-

To: Vitas who wrote (26996)	9/9/1998 1:50:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Respond to of 94695

Vitas; I found something else that causes me to doubt any regular pattern of cycles, particularly as you move back in time. As you may be aware I've maintained that "Index Funds" have proliferated to such an extent that since 1995 market dynamics have under gone a huge change. This alone would put a big crimp in any patters prior to 95 matching any thing today. But "index funds" seem to have been just the tip of the iceberg. the derivative market has under gone even more change , and it staggers my imagination so much, so I make no claim to understand more than a very small part of it. However I see the vast majority people have never once did any more that glance at it, or they consider the S&P, OEX futures or options, as the big part, and that's not close. Here is just a small excerpt M. SCOTT GORDON CHAIRMAN OF THE CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE Before The U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES COMMITTEE ON BANKING AND FINANCIAL SERVICES July 17, 1998 ------------------ The over-the-counter ("OTC") derivative market has mushroomed in size and scope since the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's swaps policy statement in July 21, 1989. In 1989</> the outstanding notional value of interests rate and currency swaps is estimated at less than $2 trillion. The Commission's adoption of the Part 35 swap exemption in January, 1993, reconfirmed its policy statement. At that time the swaps market had grown to approximately $10 trillion. At the end of 1996, the reported notional value of outstanding interest rate and currency swaps and currency options was $25.4 trillion. ISDA reports growth in that segment of 13% to $28.733 trillion by the second quarter of 1997. The estimated $53 trillion of total current market size is even more staggering. During this period of rapid market change and growth, the types of contracts traded, the customers participating and the means by which trading is conducted have all changed. -------------------------------------- Note much of this is similar to debt type instruments, yet are carried on the books of Big Banks as assets. They range from coffee not even planted, to rags supposedly in some warehouse that if you go check, was torn down 20 years ago. It's became a way for the Big Bankers to print their own money, which by the way exceeds the Money the Government prints. This market in a way may be looked at as a "National Debt of the International Bankers" it is 10 times larger than our Government National Debt. But more than that the vast majority of it is nothing but phony money, being swapped as if it were real. It's effect on the other markets is so enormous I have no way to calculate it. But this much I do know, you can forget trying to relate this market today to anything in even the not to distant past, all you will see is like faces in the clouds, " or what you want to see ". As there has never been a huge monster on the lose in the markets such as this, never before in history. Not even the experts can agree on much about it, except they don't want Congress looking in on it. Jim