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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (27002)	9/9/1998 2:01:00 AM
From: studdog	Respond to of 94695

I know it's not too sophisticated, but looking the the 200 day moving averages for the indexes is very helpful to me. ALL, and I mean ALL the indexes are under their 200dma. The Utility average is just under the line. OEX and SPX are the next closest, within 2-4%. The Dow is still off 6%. The SOX and RUT are lost in New Jersey. Anyone else expecting some serious tests of these levels and then a fall back? Sounds like what David sees. Which of the Indexes would have the most significance if it closed above its 200dma? I own some diamonds and spyders and will bail at S&P 1045 (close to David's number) and wait and see what happens. Karl

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (27002)	9/9/1998 4:50:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

David, I disagree with your count, but agree with some of your predictions. I stick with my opinion that we're about to start 3 of 3 of 1. Wave 1 ended 8/14 and lasted 20 trading days. Wave 2 ended 8/25 and lasted 6 trading days. It took the 3 dma over the 13 dma- a short term correction in my book. Wave 1 of 3 started 8/26 and lasted 4 days. In the last 5 days we have completed the 2 of 3. a of 2 from 9/1 am to 9/2 pm b of 2 from 9/2 pm to 9/4 pm, a double action, too. c of 2 from 9/4 pm to 9/8 pm 3 of 3 should take around 4 days, too, and be of a greater percentage decline then wave 1 of 3, bringing us under SPX 900 next Monday. The last 5 trading days were a correction of a lesser magnitude then the one ended 8/25, cause it didn't take the 3 dma over the 13 dma. However, it's a classic abc correction to the drop from 1100. All that remains to see is if we take Friday's close by tomorrow, to continue the crash phase. My guess is that most, if not all, of yesterday's gains should be wiped today, and then panic would set itself in investors hearts. ATG

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (27002)	9/12/1998 1:58:00 PM
From: Bull RidaH	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 94695

Highlighting the earlier post that this one is a response to. Written Wednesday morning before market open: "Wave 1 was an extended wave, so we shouldn't be looking for extensions in waves 3 & 5. Wave 1 was 151 points & wave 3 was 174.50 points. Wave 5 should be the same size as wave 1, but it could truncate to as small as 75.5 pts, or it could overachieve and hold the same ratio to 3 as 3 did to 1, making it 202 pts. That's quite a range, ain't it? Wave 1 lasted 19.5 trading days, and wave 3 lasted 5 trading days. Wave 5 should be relatively brief as well, but with a big punch!! I like the 895/6950 area as a likely place for wave 5 to terminate, but it's really difficult to pinpoint it this early." The pearl within this forecast was the warning that the Large scale Wave 5 down that I was expecting to begin on Wednesday (possibly from the 1047 area, which proved incorrect) could truncate into a down wave "as small as 75.5 pts." From Wednesday's high on the Sep futures, around 1029, we had a move lower into the Friday morning timeframe. At 3am friday morning, globex Sept futures traded down to the mid 950's, fulfilling the minimum requirements for this 5th wave. The other pearl was "Wave 5 should be relatively brief as well, but with a big punch." It appears to have only lasted 1.75 trading days, beginning at 10am on Wednesday, and concluding at 3am Friday morning, nearly holding the same time ratio to wave 3, as 3 held to wave 1. Big punch? Well I'll let you be the judge of that. <g> There just weren't enough sellers to drive it further down, and with the Intc/Orcl/GE/Clinton tears, etc., etc., they truncated the 5th wave length-wise as much as they could, keeping it to only 75 pts. And with the bad news everyone's been waiting for to be released on Friday afternoon, it's par for the course for the participants to sell the rumor and buy the news. Unfortunately for the shorts, they began before the news was released, and ran it up so quickly as to prevent substantial short profits from being taken by those less fleet of foot (including me this time :o( ....). I closed out all shorts by days end (saving as much profit as I could on most, but taking small losses on others), and will be playing the market with a "long" bias for the next couple months. I will trade the short side, but not as agressively as before, unless 960 is taken out on the Dec S&P's. The bear flag scenario is already nullified on the NDX, as prices have already moved well above a 50% retracement of the "flag pole". One of the key ingredients to a successful flag formation is that prices remain within a safe margin of the 50% retracement area, and the NDX has exceeded that margin, in my opinion (the 1260 area was crucial to hold as resistance, which actually gave way last week, forewarning that the flag formation with its promise of continuation to lower lows on the Nasdaq would not materialize). A move above 1020 on the SPX nullifies its possibility of a successful flag formation (which also already happened last Tues/Wed). Now the Dow's bear flag formation appears to be technically intact, but a move beyond 8100 would nullify its possibilities. That's really the one to watch at this point for final confirmation that the selloff is over. A break of yesterday's low on the Dow (7518) would signal that the selloff is not over, and that what I have labeled as the end of the 5th wave was only the end of wave 1 of 5, or some other wave in the myriad of possibilities. I don't put alot of credence in that happening, but if you do, then use me as a contrary indicator. Regards, David P.S. If indeed the 5 wave move from the 7/20 top is over, then one should look for a minimum 50% retracement (to the 1065 area), and possibly a move approaching the highs.