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To: Larry S. who wrote (16216)9/9/1998 7:21:00 AM
From: Ron McKinnon  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 53068
 
"Market turn or head fake"

well the early line is saying a down open

trading a market like this is very difficult
yesterday the opening gap was so big that it would have been hard to enter at a reasonable price
if the open gap down today is large, than getting put will be equally hard

so my read is this:

not a time to take on any large long term holds; just dabble here and there on a few favorites in small pieces at best

intraday flips can give some good gains with these big swings; just focus on say 3-5 very strong stocks that one knows well; take some small gains as they come to pay the rent

position/swing trades of 2-5 days in duration may be the overall best bet
as the market ebbs and flows the trading range and support/resistance of the market and each stock is becoming clearer and possibly more solid

lets take BKB as an example

on a post split basis this one ran from 1 1/2 in its darkest days of 1991 to a high of 59 on 7/7/98; a 40 bagger
during 1996-97-98 it ran up on good earnings and takeover speculation
it then fell a huge 40% on various financial concerns about the US economy and international exposure as well as failing takeover speculation

a 2 year chart shows support in the 30-32 and 34-36 areas which appear to be rock solid
resisatance is at 40, 44, and 50

so let's say I wanted a 1000 share position
a way to play that might be to buy
200 at 36 1/4
300 at 35 1/4
500 at 34 1/4
set sell stop at 33 3/4's
sell off near resistance at 38 1/2-40

have a buy stop ready at 40 1/4 or so to catch a break out
then do the same in the 40-44 range
ditto for a buy stop at 50 1/4

the more often a stock stays in a tight range the stronger the support and resistance becomes
and the more important a breakout will be

there are ways to make money in this kind of a market
but one needs focus, patience, selectivity, and buying power